Rigetti Computing (RGTI) Share Price: Tech Breakthrough or Hype Bubble?

Rigetti Computing’s journey since going public has been nothing short of dramatic. The quantum computing company, which merged with a SPAC and began trading in March 2022 at $9.75, has seen its RGTI share price swing wildly—plunging to $0.38 by mid-2023 before rocketing to $56.34 in October 2025. Today, as investors grapple with the technology’s commercialization timeline, the key question isn’t just where Rigetti’s quantum chips will take the industry, but whether the current valuation reflects realistic near-term progress or unfounded investor enthusiasm.

The Quantum Landscape: Rigetti’s Position in an Intensifying Competition

The quantum computing sector is becoming increasingly crowded, and that intensification poses a significant challenge to Rigetti’s long-term strategy. While the company positions itself as a comprehensive “full-stack” player offering both hardware and software solutions through its Forest platform, competitors are pursuing different technological routes that may prove more economical.

IonQ and Quantum Computing Inc. are developing systems that eliminate the need for expensive cryogenic refrigeration—a critical cost factor for superconducting qubit systems like those Rigetti manufactures. IonQ’s ion-trap technology and Quantum Computing’s photonic approach represent potentially superior alternatives that could reshape the market within the next two to three years. Meanwhile, tech giants IBM and Alphabet’s Google continue expanding their quantum capabilities at scales Rigetti hasn’t yet matched, with IBM having deployed systems with 156+ qubits against Rigetti’s current maximum of 84 qubits.

This competitive pressure directly impacts investor confidence in Rigetti’s ability to execute its roadmap. The company has already delayed its 108-qubit system launch from late 2025 to early 2026—a slip that underscores the technical and operational challenges ahead. For those monitoring RGTI share price movements, such delays often signal deeper execution issues beyond simple scheduling adjustments.

Revenue Reality Check: Growth Claims vs. Historical Performance

Here’s where the investment narrative becomes complex. Analysts project Rigetti’s revenue will surge 168% to $20.4 million in 2026 and another 123% to $45.4 million in 2027. These figures sound compelling and support a bull case for the RGTI share price to appreciate substantially.

However, there’s a troubling pattern in Rigetti’s recent financial history: revenue actually declined in 2023, 2024, and 2025. The company attributed this slowdown to the expiration of a U.S. National Quantum Initiative contract and the unpredictable timing of government funding cycles. For investors, this raises an uncomfortable question: can a company with lumpy, declining revenue suddenly shift into explosive growth mode? The risk that future growth proves equally volatile casts doubt on the reliability of the forward projections underlying current valuations.

The aggressive growth targets would require not just successful product launches but also meaningful commercial traction among private-sector customers. So far, that evidence remains limited. Building quantum computing as a service business takes time, especially when the technology itself remains nascent and ROI uncertain for enterprise clients.

The Valuation Question: Is RGTI Share Price Reflecting Fairness?

With a market capitalization around $7.18 billion, Rigetti trades at approximately 160 times its projected 2027 sales—an extraordinarily premium valuation for a company still approaching profitability and facing execution headwinds. By comparison, more mature semiconductor firms trade at far lower revenue multiples.

This valuation premium leaves little room for disappointment. If Rigetti misses its 2026 product roadmap by even a quarter or two, or if commercial adoption proves slower than expected, RGTI share price faces significant downside pressure. Markets have historically punished quantum computing stocks harshly when growth narratives falter. The company would need to execute flawlessly while simultaneously proving that its “full-stack” strategy is economically superior to alternative approaches—a tall order in such a competitive landscape.

Share Dilution: The Quiet Risk Factor

Another concern for long-term RGTI share price holders relates to capital dynamics. Rigetti has increased its outstanding shares by 190% since its 2022 debut while remaining unprofitable. As long as the company burns cash and needs to fund operations and R&D, further share issuance is likely. This dilution erodes the ownership value of existing shareholders and could pressure the share price independent of operational performance.

The company’s path to profitability remains murky, which means investors should brace for continued dilution unless and until Rigetti demonstrates sustainable revenue growth and meaningful progress toward positive operating margins.

2026-2027 Outlook: Navigating Multiple Uncertainties

Looking ahead, Rigetti faces several make-or-break milestones. The 108-qubit system launch (now expected in early 2026), followed by a 150+ qubit system, will be closely watched. More important than the specifications, though, will be customer adoption and feedback. Can enterprise clients find practical value in Rigetti’s quantum systems? Will the full-stack approach drive user lock-in, or will customers simply gravitate toward cheaper or more accessible alternatives?

Success on these fronts could justify optimism about RGTI share price recovery. Failure—or even mediocre execution—could trigger a sharp reversion in valuation. Given the company’s history of delays and revenue volatility, treating a positive outcome as guaranteed carries substantial risk. Market participants should remember that quantum computing itself remains largely theoretical from a commercial standpoint; Rigetti’s ability to monetize it faster than competitors has not yet been proven.

Investment Perspective: RGTI Share Price Outlook for the Next 12 Months

The combination of premium valuation, execution uncertainty, intensifying competition, ongoing share dilution, and mixed historical revenue trends suggests that Rigetti’s RGTI share price may struggle to advance meaningfully over the coming year. While a successful product launch could generate near-term optimism and short-covering rallies, the fundamental risk-reward profile looks unattractive for new investors at current levels.

More likely scenarios include trading sideways or experiencing gradual pressure if the broader market environment deteriorates or if Rigetti misses on key deliverables. The company needs to prove it can deliver on its ambitious technical roadmap while simultaneously building sustainable commercial revenue—a dual challenge that few quantum computing firms have yet accomplished. Until that execution risk diminishes materially, cautious positioning seems prudent for those evaluating Rigetti Computing as an investment opportunity.