When will the Ethereum weekly rebound arrive? Four core signals to determine the direction

Author: Trading Guru

Recently, Ethereum has experienced a rollercoaster of sharp declines and rebounds. On February 5th, it briefly dipped to a low of $1,741, hitting a new low since May last year, then violently rebounded above $1,900. The market is asking: what signals should we wait for at the weekly level to confirm a rebound? Today, from four core dimensions—funds, lows, structure, and strength—I will explain the key points for judging the start of a weekly rebound. All are valuable insights. Like and subscribe so you don’t get lost!

From the funding perspective, the current market is still dominated by bears, and the rebound lacks core momentum. Recently, crypto market funds have been fleeing significantly. Bitcoin ETF funds have seen over $800 million outflow for two consecutive days, and Ethereum is also experiencing institutional sell-offs. On February 5th, trading volume surged during the sharp decline, but it was all panic selling. During the rebound phase, trading volume continued to shrink—no large funds are stepping in to buy, so the so-called rebound is just a technical correction after a crash, not a shift in trend or strategic fund deployment. This is a key reason why the weekly rebound has been delayed. Only when we see sustained net inflows of Ethereum’s main funds and ETF funds shifting from outflow to inflow will the market signal a genuine rebound.

Looking at yesterday’s low, $1,741 is a critical testing point; its support validity remains to be confirmed. The $1,741 level on February 5th is an important recent low and a key support test at the weekly level. Whether this low can hold will directly determine the weekly trend: if it can stabilize and not make new lows, or even show signs of consolidation at the low, it indicates buying interest is emerging below and lays the foundation for a weekly rebound. But if it breaks below $1,741, or drops into the $1,700–$1,600 range, the weekly trend will continue to weaken, and a rebound will be unlikely. Currently, this low is just a temporary support, needing more time to confirm—don’t blindly buy the dip.

Structurally, the weekly bear pattern remains unchanged, with clear resistance from a reversal pattern. Ethereum’s weekly chart has long shown a definite bearish arrangement, with Bollinger Bands opening downward, and prices staying near the lower band. More importantly, a reverse cup-and-handle pattern was formed earlier; after breaking below the 2,960 USD neckline, the rebound test failed, fully establishing a downtrend. Even recent bounces haven’t broken above the weekly 20-day moving average. Some see a short-term head-and-shoulders bottom pattern, but the current weekly structure shows no technical signs of a reversal or rebound. To trigger a weekly rebound, Ethereum must first break above the psychological $2,000 level and the weekly 20-day moving average to reverse the bearish structure.

Finally, regarding rebound strength, the current move is just a weak rebound, with volume-price divergence unlikely to sustain. The rebound from $1,741 to $1,900 is a typical relief rally after a sharp decline. The core issue is insufficient volume: during the rebound, trading volume gradually shrank; after breaking above short-term hourly moving averages, resistance was encountered at $1,930–$1,950, making it difficult to reach the key psychological $2,000 mark. This is a classic “volume-price divergence” weak rebound. A genuine weekly-level rebound would involve a volume-supported breakout of key resistance levels—such as holding above $1,950 and breaking through the $2,000–$2,050 zone with increasing volume and minimal retracement—rather than the current weak pattern that stalls and drops at the slightest pressure.

In summary, for Ethereum to initiate a weekly rebound, four signals must be met: funds shift from outflow to net inflow; the $1,741 low holds without making new lows; volume-supported breakout above $2,000 reverses the bearish structure; and rebound volume continues to grow without divergence. Currently, none of these four signals are fulfilled. The weekly trend remains mainly sideways with a bearish bias. The rebound has been relatively strong, and tonight’s key is whether it can challenge back into the $2,050 downward trend channel. A reversal still requires more time.

Tonight, focus on the breakout strength around the $2,000 level! Entry and exit points for long positions are shown below.

I will continue to monitor Ethereum’s fund flows and key breakout levels, providing real-time updates on trading strategies. Like and subscribe to stay in sync with the Trading Guru, avoid traps, and accurately grasp genuine rebound opportunities! #加密市场回调