Tonight's Non-Farm Payrolls Expectations and Their Impact on Cryptocurrency

Tonight (February 11) at 21:30, the US January Non-Farm Payrolls report will be released, and the market is in a "wait-and-see" mode. The key is not whether the data is strong or weak, but whether an "unexpected" event occurs that can change the rate cut expectations.

① Conventional Data: Expected 70,000 new jobs (previously 50,000), Unemployment Rate 4.4%. Goldman Sachs is more pessimistic (45,000), Citibank expects 135,000, and the divergence could trigger intense volatility.

② Impact Logic: Using the "Dollar" as a transmission channel
The non-farm payrolls report influences "data → rate cut expectations → USD → risk assets." Currently, the market is only sensitive to "bad news":

· If the data significantly falls below expectations or is sharply revised downward: It confirms recession fears, and the expectation of three rate cuts this year will be fully ignited. The USD will plunge, and improved liquidity expectations will directly benefit risk assets (including Bitcoin).
· If the data exceeds expectations strongly: Short-term negative, but the probability is low.

③ Current Crypto Market State (Extremely Fragile)

· Emotional Low Point: Fear Index drops to 10 (lowest since 2022), indicating "extreme fear."
· Highly Sensitive: Institutional buying is weak (ETF inflows of 500 million cannot offset previous selling pressure), and analysts warn that prices are extremely sensitive to macro events.

④ Scenario Analysis (Watch the 68,000 Support Level)

· Ideal Scenario (Weak Non-Farm + Significant Downward Revision): Bullish. Could serve as a catalyst to break through the 70,000 mark, pushing towards resistance zones at 71K-72K.
· Risk Scenario (Neutral to Slightly Strong Data): Bearish. Disappointment may trigger a sell-off, and a decisive break below 68K could open the way down to 65K-60K.