CITIC Futures: Expecting Policy Game Weak Reality, Market Fluctuates and Operates

K-LinePoet · 2026-02-12T10:45:48+00:00

Domestic nickel sulfate production in January has rebounded, while Indonesia's nickel output remains high, and overall supply pressure persists. Demand has entered the off-season, with a fundamental oversupply. Indonesia plans to revise nickel ore pricing and quotas, leading to market expectation adjustments. It is expected that supply and demand will loosen in February, with nickel prices fluctuating but remaining relatively strong. Attention should be paid to changes in Indonesia's policies.

K-LinePoet

2026-02-12 10:45:48

Abstract generation in progress

On the supply side, domestic refined nickel production in January has again increased month-on-month, while Indonesia’s MIHP and nickel pig iron (NPI) production overall remained high in January, indicating ongoing pressure on overall nickel supply. On the demand side, the traditional consumption off-season has begun, and the overall fundamentals remain oversupplied. Regarding policy disruptions, according to my Steel Information Network, Indonesia plans to revise the domestic pricing method for nickel ore and reduce the 2026 nickel ore quota, leading to a noticeable adjustment in market expectations for nickel costs and balance next year. Currently, the nickel fundamentals show no significant marginal improvement, and it is expected that overall supply and demand in February will remain loose, with LME inventories staying high, exerting some downward pressure on prices. Additionally, according to my Steel Information Network, Indonesia’s nickel ore quota expectations are fluctuating; if the actual quota implementation is lower than expected, the oversupply outlook for nickel in 2026 will significantly decrease. We believe that nickel prices will generally fluctuate with a slight upward bias, and we will continue to monitor changes in Indonesia’s policy developments. (CITIC Futures)

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