AmBev's fourth-quarter performance meets expectations, with sales declining across all departments

LootboxPhobia · 2026-02-12T10:52:10+00:00

AmBev's Q4 performance was largely in line with expectations, with adjusted EBITDA of 8.5 billion reais, down 7.5% year-over-year. The Brazilian market faces sales challenges, with beer sales declining by 2.6%. The company expects growth of 4.5%-7.5% by 2026 and is facing cost pressures. Bank of America maintains a neutral rating and adjusts the target price to R$15.30 per share.

LootboxPhobia

2026-02-12 10:52:10

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Investing.com – AmBev’s fourth-quarter results were largely in line with expectations, with adjusted EBITDA reaching 8.5 billion reais, exceeding forecasts by 3%, but down 7.5% year-over-year due to declines in sales across most segments.

The company’s earnings per share were 0.28 reais, a 10% decrease from the same period last year. Total sales declined 3.8% year-over-year, below analyst expectations by 2.5%, though some of this was offset by slightly better pricing and profit margins in certain segments.

In Brazil, beer sales fell 2.6% year-over-year due to challenging macroeconomic conditions and adverse weather in October and November.

The company reported that its market share grew within the low single digits, with premium and non-alcoholic beverage segments increasing by over 15%, while core beer sales declined within the high single digits.

EBITDA in Brazil was 4.8% above expectations and remained flat year-over-year. Due to hedging factors, cash costs grew 13.6% faster than the previous year, but this was offset by a 6.7% decrease in selling, general, and administrative expenses (SG&A).

Outside Brazil, Central America and the Caribbean (CAC) was a negative highlight, with EBITDA 15% below expectations and profit margins down 130 basis points year-over-year.

Looking ahead to 2026, AmBev faces cost pressures, guiding for growth of 4.5% to 7.5%, which requires price increases exceeding inflation to maintain profit margins. The company also expects marketing expenses to rise due to the World Cup.

Bank of America maintains a “Neutral” rating on AmBev, with a revised target price of 15.30 reais per share (equivalent to $2.95 per American Depositary Receipt), up from the previous 13.50 reais.

The bank noted that due to continued pressure on Brazilian beer sales and sluggish profit growth, upside potential is limited and momentum is weak.

The bank has lowered its EPS estimates for 2026 and 2027 by 2.4% and 3%, respectively, to 0.95 reais and 1.06 reais.

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