Is BTC's trend repeating the 2021 top waterfall signal? Current risk assessment

Current technical patterns in Bitcoin (BTC) raise market concerns—this trend appears to be repeating the warning signals seen at the 2021 bull market peak. From candlestick formations to technical indicators, the similarities in history are hard to ignore. This comparative analysis helps investors understand the current market position and risk levels.

Technical Features at the 2021 Top—Head and Shoulders + MACD Divergence

The 2021 Bitcoin top formed a classic head and shoulders pattern, with the left shoulder, head, and right shoulder clearly defined. More importantly, the MACD indicator showed a simultaneous divergence at the top—price reached new highs, but momentum indicators declined—this is a typical sign of a top. After breaking down, Bitcoin experienced a rapid decline, falling straight from the peak and forming a pronounced waterfall pattern.

2026 Pattern Comparison—Breakout Risk and Waterfall Warning

Looking at the current trend, BTC has already completed a full head and shoulders pattern in early 2026. Worryingly, this pattern also shows a divergence at the top—while the price is still moving, upward momentum is lacking support. The difference is that it has not yet broken key support levels, but once a breakdown is confirmed, historical experience suggests the risk of a waterfall decline will significantly increase. This is the most critical technical warning area.

Current Price and Technical Risk Status

As of February 12, 2026, BTC is quoted at $67,970, with a 24-hour increase of +2.04%. Although there is a slight upward movement in the short term, from a medium-term technical perspective, the head and shoulders pattern has been established, and the divergence at the top has been confirmed. The market is accumulating energy for a waterfall decline. The key is whether the current support can hold; once broken, history often repeats itself in a similar manner.

What Investors Should Focus On

The lessons from 2021 remain fresh—when such technical signals appear together, the risk is often not gradual but can suddenly unleash in a waterfall manner. Although a breakdown has not yet occurred, risk awareness needs to be established in advance. Strict stop-loss plans and risk management are more valuable than blind optimism.