The last trading day game and the opportunity for the post-holiday red envelope market! (Review on 2026.02.12)

Data Review: [Taogu Ba]
Today, the Shanghai Composite Index +0.05%, the ChiNext Index +1.32%, the STAR Market 50 Index +1.78%, total market turnover 21,417 billion yuan, 2,108 stocks rose, 3,280 stocks fell, the total market volume increased by 1,574 billion yuan compared to yesterday.

Overall Market Sentiment: A Tale of Two Extremes
Number of limit-up stocks: 60 (yesterday: 51)
Number of stocks with 20% limit-up: 5 (yesterday: 3)
Number of consecutive limit-up stocks: 17 (yesterday: 11)
Number of limit-down stocks: 13 (yesterday: 5)
Today’s break rate: 24.1% (yesterday: 25%)
Today’s first-limit success rate: 30% (yesterday: 7.7%)

Today’s Major Breakout Stocks
None
Before 9:45 AM, the quick recovery of yesterday’s major breakout stocks serves as an auxiliary signal for sector recovery.

Today’s High-Volume Surprising Stocks in Bidding
Jiangwu Equipment

Global Continuous Limit-Up Summary:
4-limit: Decai Co. (AI Web Drama), Zhangyue Technology (AI Web Drama), Dawi Technology (Computing Power), Yabo Co. (Photovoltaic)
3-limit: Tefa Information (Optical Communication)
2-limit: Mebon Co. (Pesticides, Chemicals), Shandong Glass Fiber (Electronic Fabric), Honghe Technology (Electronics), Massive Data (Cloud Computing), Zhuolang Intelligent (Electronic Fabric), Jiangwu Equipment (Nonferrous Metals), Jinsi Technology (Computing Power), Xianglu Tungsten (Nonferrous Metals), Zhangyuan Tungsten (Nonferrous Metals), Zhongcai Technology (Electronic Fabric), Yueneng Holdings (Participating in Computing Power)

I. Sentiment Cycle and Key Node Analysis:
Limit-up stocks are stable in the mid-to-low range, continuous limit-up stocks are increasing in the mid-range, break rate remains stable, limit-down stocks are increasing in the mid-to-high range, the proportion of total market turnover in limit-up stocks is around 0.45, showing a significant change from yesterday with a sharp increase in limit-down stocks and the success rate of first-limit hits approaching the limit. This indicates rapid sentiment shifts, with the continuation of loss effects and funds switching to new directions for rotation and trial. Currently, it is a chaotic cycle with rotation and trial-and-error nodes.

Sentiment Temperature: Moderate to Weak, around 40

Tomorrow’s Short-Term Market Sentiment Anchored Stocks:
Hang Electric Co., Baichuan Co.
Before 9:45 AM, the positive or negative feedback and extreme sentiment anchoring of these stocks will serve as market sentiment signals.

Recent Strong Sectors, Top Sector of the Day, and Notable Stocks Within the Day:

II. Capital Flow Analysis:

Loss Effect -
Concentrated in AI Web Drama, Consumer sectors, representing ongoing divergence and defense sector weakening.
Position and Structure: Mainly mid-structure, represented by Hengdian Film & TV, Julli Rigging, Bona Film, etc.

Profit Effect -
Concentrated in Electronic Fabric, Computing Power, AI Power, Nonferrous Metals sectors, indicating multi-sector capital rotation and local trend profit effects.
Position and Structure: Mainly in trend structures, represented by Tianfu Communication, Capital Online, Honghe Technology, etc.

Capital Flow Summary:
Market mainly driven by quantitative funds, engaging in intraday or next-day arbitrage of sector rotation, with a preference for trend-structured local computing power trends. Recently, some profit effects have appeared temporarily. Overall, most funds are in recovery, with some focusing on local computing power segments.

III. Sector Analysis:

AI Web Drama -
In the first stage of the trend cycle’s end phase.
Led by Zhangyue Technology, followed by China Online, Jucheng Co., and Light Media.

Today’s AI Web Drama bidding phase shows that Huanyu Century’s core stocks, Bona Pictures, Hengdian Film & TV, exhibit negative feedback signals, which are quite extreme. Continuing divergence signals suggest adjusting plans; avoid low buying or counter-positions.

After opening, Light Media and China Online opened low and declined, Long Yun Co. plunged, indicating both bullish and bearish funds have given up resistance. Only Jucheng remained relatively resilient. Around 13:20 at lunch, low-position industry leaders like Kunlun Wanwei started to strengthen, followed by Blue Cursor, Huoku DeCai, and others. Lio Co. hit the limit-up, with some funds shifting back to older AI application stocks.

Given the strong breakout and relatively low position of AI Web Drama, with persistent divergence and extreme negative feedback signals, sector expectations further decline. Any rebound later should be viewed as a rotation without new highs.

Tomorrow is a critical node for AI Web Drama. If not recovered, subsequent rotation may lack participation value. Key signals to watch: 1. The anti-fall resilience of Huoku DeCai cannot be directly hit with a core sell-off; 2. The position of DeCai Co. or Zhangyue Tech must be able to upgrade to 5 limit-ups to open up space; 3. The anti-fall capacity of Jucheng Co. must strengthen and recover. If positive signals appear, a holiday-related fermentation may occur; if not, consider it as an end signal.

Artificial Intelligence (Computing Power, Chips) -
In the 13th stage of the trend cycle.
Led by Haili Co., Chunzhong Tech, followed by Zhangjiang Hi-Tech.
Subsequent stages involve various leaders and rotation behaviors, with no core leader in some phases, and alternating core leadership in others.
Current phases show a pattern of oscillation and rotation among different core stocks, with some phases showing no clear leader.

Transformers trend: Igoer, Jinpian Tech, Wangbian Electric, Sifang Co., Siyuan Electric, following a medium- to long-term slow upward trend along the trend line.

Gas Turbines trend: Lian De Co., Wanze Co., Yingliu Co., Boyingte Welding, Weichai Power, following a similar slow upward structure.

Electronic Fabric core trend: Guoji Fucai, Honghe Tech, China Jushi, currently in a strong upward trend, but watch for phase profit-taking.

Optical Fiber core trend: Longfibre, Hengtong Optoelectronics, Tongding Interconnection, Hang Electric, in the best trend segment within computing power, currently oscillating upward along the trend line, watch for high-level stagnation.

OCS core trend: Tengjing Tech, Dekeli, Guangku Tech, oscillating upward along the trend line.

CPO/Optical Communication core trend: Tianfu Communication, Juguang Tech, Zhishang Tech, Changxin Bochuang, Luobote, oscillating upward along the trend line.

Today’s tech line bidding anomalies are mainly in the computing power sector, with large orders for major stocks like Tech Big Tech, and high open for stocks like Meili Cloud, Dayuan Pump, Tianfu Communication, Yingwei, and Dayuan Pump. Notably, the strongest stock yesterday, Wangsu Tech, only opened 1 point higher, indicating internal fund divergence.

At around 10:20, massive data stocks like Massive Data, Wangsu Tech, and Capital Online started to rally, with domestic computing power stocks entering a breakout phase, and AI power, gas turbines concepts also strengthening.

Key signals today include:

1. AI Power (power grid, gas turbines, transformers) can be viewed as part of computing power, driven by increased AI industry demand for electricity, mainly based on North American power shortages and overseas expansion logic. These are slow oscillation structures with uncertain short-term upside potential, stimulated by news.
2. The strongest recent computing power branch is optical fiber, which should accelerate with the overall explosion of the sector, but some stocks like Tongding Interconnection showed signs of stagnation or weakness, indicating possible phase lag.
3. The weakest branch yesterday, overseas CPO/OCS/Optical Communication, became the strongest today, driven by news and sector rhythm, showing a pattern of 1-2 steps forward, 2-3 steps back. Be cautious of chasing high; look for volume reduction and correction for potential trial-and-error entries, and exit if breakdown occurs.
4. Despite no sustained trend in software sectors like AI Web Drama, AI applications, and large models, a key underlying logic is that all software development relies on underlying computing power—data centers, cloud computing, power supplies, leasing—these are the “selling shovels” stocks. Keep an eye on domestically related computing power stocks with potential for future growth, avoiding wild swings typical of quant-driven software stocks.

In summary, recent strength in tech sectors is mainly in computing power-related concepts, some of which are at high levels. Monitor volume-price trends for risk, and consider adjusting positions or focusing on less high-level segments.

IV. Index and Market Outlook:

**As shown, today’s index continued narrow-range oscillation, with no significant volume decline, mainly because many funds considered outflows, increasing volatility. Overall trading sentiment remains weak, with only the computing power sector showing strength. Other sectors are mostly weak or oscillating, and recent high-activity sectors like AI Web Drama are continuously unwinding. Short-term funds aiming to cash out have mostly exited. The last trading day before the holiday likely won’t see sharp declines.

Pre-market outlook for tomorrow:
From a trend perspective, only computing power-related sectors have potential for continued upward movement. Pay attention to sector rhythm, such as signs of phase lag or pullbacks after large gains. Sectors with slow oscillation structures are suitable for patient accumulation. Tomorrow, focus on computing power stocks that have undergone sufficient adjustment and are not at high levels. If momentum continues, consider participating in post-holiday rally opportunities. Also, observe whether quantitative funds are re-entering AI applications for recovery arbitrage. Regardless, the holiday-related rally driven by news is more likely to favor tech sectors.

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