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Everybody needs to see this chart.
If you are struggling to understand my thesis...
This is another simple and effective chart that tells a very broad macro picture, all in one.
its probably one of the best overall macro charts you could see.
What we are looking at here is:
- COPPER
- BITCOIN
- GOLD
- ISM
Now, these 4 charts all tell a very distinct story, but when you put them together, they tell almost everything.
Copper is an asset that signals overall expansion as it is the most used metal in construction and development of all forms, and now, with the added tailwind of AI.
Copper has broken out of a 20 year trend to the upside.
That is definitely something.
The demand for Copper is not going to slow down.
Next, Bitcoin, follows Copper almost tit for tat, because Bitcoin is a risk on asset that thrives in economic and business expansion.
And at the very bottom, ISM, which is the index for whether the economy is expanding or not.
So now, firstly, observe Copper and ISM... do we think that Copper breaking out of a 20 year range and ISM entering expansion for the first time is a coincidence?
It's not.
Now, look at every cycle top for Bitcoin. What do Copper and ISM look like at those moments?
At the peak of their epansion.... but right now, they are only at the beginning.
And with Copper breaking a 20 year trend, do we think this will be a small breakout?
No.
Lastly, lets now add in Gold.
Gold is important here because it is a risk off asset that thrives in periods of economic uncertainty.
What we can see here is that Gold runs whilst the others contract.
And we can see, every cycle, regardless of "4 year cycle"... this is a process that happens.
GOLD pumps in contraction
ISM moves into expansion w Copper pushing
Bitcoin follows
This is not an arbitrary 4 year number... this same process is happening right now, even thought it is totally out of line with the 4 year cycle.
Because it is not the 4 year cycle that matters...
It is the cycle of expansion and contraction that we can see here.
It is not a coincidence that this is all happening the same way it always does, even thought this time there has been a much longer gap between ISM contraction and expansion.
This chart tells us everything we need to know about the macro.
And it is, right now, entering large scale expansion...
Whilst everyone thinks its over.
This is nothing like 2022.