Recently, many friends have asked me what I think about the stock market.

Actually, if you raise your perspective a bit and look at the long-term charts of major global stock indices, the answer is not complicated — most indices are already operating in historically high regions, with candlesticks clearly visible.
The higher the position, the more risk tends to quietly accumulate.
Now, let's focus on the US stock market.
Whether it's the NASDAQ Index #IXIC 、标普500，还是AI绝对龙头 #NVDA, if you switch to a monthly chart, the technical structure is not very optimistic.
Many patterns have already entered a high-level extension phase. To put it bluntly: the risk could be triggered at any time.
So, here’s the question:
When will the market start to decline? Will it continue to hit new highs?
If we compress the time cycle to a few days, these two questions are actually very difficult to answer. But if we extend the time frame, it becomes much simpler.
In one sentence:
Every time the index is pushed higher, it essentially accumulates greater bearish momentum for the future.
The most common state of the market at high levels is not an immediate crash, but a continuous "new high," until risks accumulate to a certain critical point.
Therefore, from the perspective of asset allocation and risk management, being cautious and reducing risk exposure over the next quarter is a rational choice.