0306 Bitcoin Daily Report#加密市场小幅下跌

Bitcoin surged to a one-month high of $74,000 the day before yesterday, but buying momentum has started to weaken. It has now pulled back to around $70,600. However, geopolitical tensions between the US and Iran remain unresolved, and market uncertainty is high. Investors should continue to watch the February non-farm payroll report.

Positive factors: Large inflows into Bitcoin ETFs, attracting nearly $880 million in a single week; Ethereum fund inflows of $117 million. Meanwhile, SOL ETFs continue to see steady demand, with total net inflows reaching $971 million. Market experts interpret that Bitcoin's recent rise may be related to a recent correction in gold, as some investors may have taken profits on gold and rotated funds into Bitcoin for higher returns.

Negative factors: Geopolitical conflicts are ongoing, with market expectations potentially lasting 3-8 weeks. This means the risk of energy supply disruptions remains a variable. Oil prices are also experiencing their largest weekly increase since 2022. Such market conditions are generally unfavorable for sustained cryptocurrency gains.

Technical Analysis: The resistance level of $70,000 built over the past month has now become the first support level to test. If this level holds, it indicates that the breakout has some validity. Conversely, if it fails, the $64,000 support level may come under further pressure. During Bitcoin's surge to $74,000, a dense amount of short positions were liquidated, suggesting that this rally was largely driven by short squeeze, as shorts had set stop-loss orders too close to the market price. Additionally, the average closing price over the past 50 trading days often acts as a dynamic resistance level, since most buyers' average cost basis is around this level. When the price rebounds to this point, selling pressure may emerge, making the $74,000 zone a highly congested technical resistance area.