The escalation of US-Iran conflict and Trump's "succession" intervention: What is the impact on the crypto market?

As of March 6, 2026, the US-Iran military conflict has entered its seventh day. The situation has not eased; instead, it has shown significant escalation. U.S. Secretary of Defense Hagseth explicitly stated that firepower strikes over Tehran are “about to increase substantially,” with more fighter squadrons and bombers to be deployed. Meanwhile, political maneuvers have intensified, with President Trump publicly stating that “he must personally intervene” in Iran’s succession arrangements, rejecting the appointment of the late Supreme Leader Khamenei’s son, Mujeh Tabataba’i Khamenei.

These developments indicate that the conflict has extended beyond mere military confrontation into deep interference with Iran’s regime stability. For the crypto industry, this geopolitical storm is reshaping market valuation logic through three channels: energy prices, dollar liquidity, and risk sentiment.

Background and Timeline

The escalation of this conflict is not an isolated event but a concentrated outbreak of long-term strategic battles. Below is a summary based on key information from the 24 hours before March 6:

• Military escalation: The U.S. military is reportedly preparing for operations lasting at least 100 days, possibly extending into September. The House of Representatives rejected a resolution aimed at limiting Trump’s military actions against Iran with a vote of 219 against and 212 in favor, clearing political obstacles for prolonged military engagement.
• Deepening political intervention: Trump explicitly rejected the succession of Khamenei’s son and encouraged Kurdish forces to attack Iran. This direct interference in Iran’s internal affairs adds uncertainty. According to PolyBeats monitoring, the probability of Mujeh Tabataba’i Khamenei succeeding has fallen from a high of 82% to 52%.
• Mixed diplomatic signals: Iran’s Deputy Foreign Minister Lavanchi stated that Iran is prepared to abandon its nuclear program if the U.S. presents a “satisfactory alternative.” However, Foreign Minister Araghchi also emphasized that the “quick war plan A” has failed, and anyone provoking war will “fall into a quagmire.”

Data and Structural Analysis

The impact of geopolitical conflict on the crypto market manifests as complex structural changes rather than simple one-way trends.

Options Market Reveals “Bull-Bear Divergence”

Based on derivatives data since early March, market sentiment shows a clear coexistence of short-term hedging and long-term bullishness. For example, the implied volatility (IV) of BTC options expiring on March 27 surged to 51.3% after the outbreak of the crisis, indicating that the market is hedging against significant volatility in the coming weeks.

More crucially, the put/call ratio (PCR) of open interest:

• Stock PCR (based on open interest): 0.75, below 1. This indicates that, overall, call options still dominate, especially at strike prices of $75,000, $80,000, and even $100,000, with large open positions.
• Incremental PCR (based on trading volume): 1.37, significantly above 1. This reflects the market’s immediate response to the conflict: large inflows of capital buying out-of-the-money puts as tactical hedges.

The divergence between the stock PCR and the volume PCR clearly reveals that institutional funds are “long-term bullish but short-term defensive.” This structure suggests that once panic sentiment diminishes marginally, the market could experience a rapid rebound driven by gamma squeezes from market makers.

Community Perspectives

Current market views on the relationship between US-Iran conflict and crypto assets mainly fall into three mainstream but debated camps:

• View A: Bitcoin’s role as “digital gold” as a safe haven has failed

Proponents argue that, initially, Bitcoin did not surge like gold during the outbreak; instead, it declined in tandem with US stock futures, with about 150,000 traders liquidated. They believe that in the first wave of liquidity crunch, Bitcoin was still treated as a high-risk asset being sold off.

• View B: Bitcoin as “the ultimate safe haven”

Another camp believes that after the brief sell-off, Bitcoin demonstrated strong resilience. Despite such a major geopolitical crisis, BTC held key support levels and did not experience a collapse similar to the “312” event in 2020. This suggests that institutional long-term holdings remain intact, and its value as a “non-sovereign currency” is being reassessed.

• View C: Geopolitical conflict transmits to crypto markets via “inflation expectations”

This is currently the clearest logical chain. The conflict disrupts shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, risking supply interruptions for about one-fifth of global maritime oil. Rising oil prices boost inflation expectations, influencing the Fed’s rate cut path. Changes in dollar rate expectations are the fundamental variables affecting liquidity in crypto markets.

Industry Impact Analysis

Based on the facts and data above, the US-Iran conflict impacts the crypto industry mainly on three levels:

Macro Liquidity and Risk Appetite

The ongoing conflict pushes energy prices higher, reinforcing inflation persistence. This leads markets to reduce expectations for Fed rate cuts this year. For the highly sensitive crypto market, this may delay valuation recovery. However, if the conflict prolongs and erodes the dollar’s credit system due to geopolitical risks, Bitcoin’s macro role as a “borderless hard asset” could be systematically enhanced.

Microstructure of Crypto Markets

Derivatives data already reflect a fragile yet resilient market structure. High implied volatility indicates changing risk-reward profiles for grid trading and arbitrage strategies. For retail traders, this means high volatility risk; for professional institutions, it presents an opportunity to capture panic premiums through options strategies.

Energy Costs and Mining

Rising oil prices will directly impact energy-dependent miners, especially in the Middle East and parts of North America. If the conflict sustains high energy costs, it could accelerate the redistribution of Bitcoin’s hash rate, pushing mining toward cheaper, renewable energy regions.

Multi-Scenario Evolution

Based on current information, three potential scenarios and the crypto market’s response paths can be outlined:

• Scenario 1: Prolonged conflict with regional limitations (baseline)

U.S. military operations last weeks to months, mainly targeting military facilities, with intermittent disruptions in Strait of Hormuz shipping. Impact: inflation expectations stay high, global liquidity tightening slows. Bitcoin may bottom out in wide-range oscillations, with the maximum pain point (currently around $76,000) becoming the ultimate battleground.

• Scenario 2: Diplomatic negotiations and de-escalation (optimistic)

Iran commits to abandoning its nuclear program in exchange for sanctions relief; the U.S. announces achievement of its goals, and the conflict rapidly cools down. Impact: oil prices fall, risk assets rebound sharply. Previously suppressed bullish options will gain momentum, and BTC could quickly test historical highs.

• Scenario 3: Full-scale out-of-control conflict (tail risk)

Fighting spreads across the Middle East, with long-term blockade of the Strait of Hormuz and U.S. ground involvement. Impact: global stagflation panic, markets may first experience a liquidity crunch (dollar shortage), followed by massive inflows into gold and Bitcoin as ultimate safe havens.

Conclusion

The escalation of the US-Iran conflict and Trump’s intervention in Iran’s succession have pushed geopolitical risks to new heights. For the crypto industry, short-term volatility is inevitable, with market sentiment vividly reflected in options data. However, beneath the fog of war, the underlying logic remains unchanged: under the dual upheavals of fiat credit and geopolitical shifts, Bitcoin’s narrative as a non-sovereign store of value is undergoing an extreme stress test. Regardless of the outcome, this will reshape the pricing anchors of the crypto market in 2026.