Overall Pattern: Short-term top confirmed, medium-term in the critical support testing phase.

On-chain Fund Dynamics (Latest Data Summary):
• Positive: Exchange ETH reserves have been net outflow for several months (over 31 million coins outflow in February alone), long-term holders (LTH) net buying surged, potential supply shock, a typical bottom signal for "HODLing."
• Neutral/Short-term Pressure: ETH ETF still has about $90 million net outflow on March 5, institutional sentiment remains cautious; some small sales by whales, but large transfers mainly to cold wallets.
• Summary: Long-term on-chain bullish (supply contraction), but short-term institutional/ETF funds still justify a pullback.
Today’s US stock market likely trend + ETH-US stock session linkage (period of crypto trading volume surge after US stock market opens):
Pre-market US futures (S&P/Nasdaq/Dow) slightly down about 0.5%, affected by Middle East geopolitics, oil prices, and US bond yields. Important non-farm payroll/employment data will be released at 8:30, market heavily dependent on data.
Likely US stock trend: high volatility and weak bias—if data exceeds expectations, a rebound; if worse, accelerated decline; overall risk appetite cautious, with a higher probability of tech stocks (Nasdaq) leading the decline.
ETH Linkage: As a risk asset, likely to follow US stocks—if US stocks weaken, ETH will continue testing the $2000~$2020 support; if US stocks stabilize or rebound, ETH will rebound testing $2080~$2100. Short-term upward momentum has significantly weakened (needs to recover $2099~$2133 to restart), currently in a profit-taking correction phase, not a trend reversal.
Short-term US stock session contract trading suggestions (15min/1H level, leverage ≤5-10x, strict risk control):
• Core Range: 2020~2050 (support zone)
• Long strategy (preferred): Buy in batches around 2040~2030, with light positions, stop-loss below 2020, target 2080→2100 (after 38.2% retracement reversal), risk-reward ratio ≥1:2. Suitable when US stocks stabilize after data release.
• Short strategy (breakout chase): Effectively break below 2000 (50% Fibonacci retracement), add short positions, stop-loss above 2020, target 1950 (61.8%)→1927.
• Notes: Max volatility occurs within 1 hour before and after US market open, avoid holding positions during data release; prioritize long rebounds when WR/KDJ are oversold; overall low-position oscillation approach, no chasing orders. Fund management: risk per trade ≤1% of total capital.
Major Fibonacci support and resistance levels (two commonly used sets):
1. Recent rebound Fibonacci (1796.47→2198.99) (most important for short-term):
• Resistance: 2099 (23.6%), 2133 (0% i.e., previous high)
• Support: 2045 (38.2% current test), 1998 (50%), 1951 (61.8%), 1796 (0%)
2. Long-term Fibonacci (3403.70 high point → 1740 low point) (medium to long-term reference):
• Resistance: 2133 (23.6%), 2375 (38.2%), 2572 (50%)
• Support: 1927 (previous low), 1740 (0%)
Summary of risk warnings:
Today’s focus on US employment data + Nasdaq trend. ETH’s short-term momentum has weakened, position cautiously, and consider adding after data release. Long-term on-chain remains bullish, but short-term technicals + US stock risk appetite jointly suppress. If support holds at 2020, a rebound is expected; if broken, continue seeking bottom around 1950.