3.11 Evening CPI Preview and Bullish Strategy

The current market is at a critical juncture between the U.S.-Iran conflict and U.S. CPI data, with short-term volatility serving as a brewing ground for medium- and long-term opportunities. Previously, expectations of a ceasefire and the Strait of Hormuz blockade-induced inflation and rate cut anticipations catalyzed a rapid rebound of Bitcoin from 67,000 to 72,000, fully confirming that the core bullish momentum has not dissipated; even if the situation with Iran temporarily escalates, causing a pullback from high levels, it is merely a healthy shakeout during the upward trend and does not undermine the overall rebound structure.

From a technical perspective, Bitcoin remains above key support levels after the pullback. Although the rebound has not yet surpassed the previous high, it is a buildup before a breakout. The resistance at 74,000 is not insurmountable, and the strong support at 65,600 provides a solid defensive cushion for the bulls. Ethereum, after a correlated correction, shows signs of catching up. Its short-term weakness appears more as a passive adjustment following the market, with bullish sentiment not truly fading. Waiting for catalysts could bring a recovery rally.

On the macro level, the U.S. February CPI data will be released at 20:30 tonight: if the data meets expectations, it will solidify the Fed’s rate cut expectations and inject liquidity into the crypto market; even if the data slightly exceeds expectations, the market has already priced in some hawkish risks. After the negative factors are digested, a bullish rebound window may open, and risk-averse buying driven by geopolitical conflicts will further provide support for crypto assets.

Bullish Operation Recommendations

Bitcoin: During the pullback to the 67,800–68,500 range, buy in batches with a long position, set stop-loss below 65,600, target initially at 71,500, and after breaking through, aim for the previous high at 74,000, firmly holding long positions.

Ethereum: During the pullback to the 2,010–2,030 range, add to long positions, set stop-loss below 1,980, target 2,120–2,180, seize the opportunity for a catch-up rally.