Today is March 12, 2026

Once again, it's the 312 anniversary. In 2020, the crypto circle experienced an epic black swan pandemic, and Bitcoin and Ethereum basically headed towards zero. Only the forced disconnection by exchanges kept the prices fixed at $3,782 per Bitcoin and $86 per Ethereum. Until today, March 12, 2020, this should be the most tragic crash anniversary in the past decade of the crypto world, with no equal.

Returning to the current crypto scene in 2026, the US-Iran war has directly impacted the global financial markets, including cryptocurrencies.
It’s the 13th day of the US-Iran war, now entering the "US-Iran Undercover" phase.
Trump wants a ceasefire, but Iran refuses to stop fighting.
Figure 3: Iran has also proposed conditions for a ceasefire, including recognizing the current Iranian regime, the US and Israel paying war reparations, and guaranteeing no future invasions of Iran. These three conditions are all life-threatening for Trump.
Trump, being proud, won't admit defeat nor support the current Iranian regime. As a businessman, he’s unlikely to pay war reparations. So, Iran’s proposed ceasefire conditions are basically impossible to achieve. This has turned the US-Iran conflict into a game of undercover operations, each with their own schemes, fighting a prolonged stalemate.
Figure 2: Due to the ongoing US-Iran war, Iran continues to blockade the Strait of Hormuz and has bombed two oil tankers. There are many pictures and videos online showing the two tankers being attacked. Clearly, the Strait of Hormuz is still unable to facilitate oil shipping.

Therefore, Figure 1: Oil prices surged another 10%, rising from over $80 per barrel to $100 per barrel. Major stock markets are once again experiencing a downward trend, and Bitcoin’s price has fallen below 70,000 again.

No one knows where the US-Iran war is headed. It’s all in the hands of US President Trump, Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu, and the newly appointed Iranian leader Mullah Khamenei. These three war hawks hold the power. The war is extremely complex, with many variables. The only certainty is that the Strait of Hormuz remains blocked, and the longer the blockade lasts, the greater the damage to the global economy.

It’s clear that the crypto market is still in a bear market. The slow bear market in crypto is the worst-performing financial market in the world, bar none.
Still believe that by May 2026, the price of Bitcoin will fall below 60,000, and the bottom for accumulation will be when the price starts with 5 or 4.