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# Golden Monday: Watch More, Move Less, Await Directional Breakout
**News**
Federal Reserve Policy Headwind: This Thursday (March 19), the Fed decision and dot plot are coming, with markets pricing in a 99%+ probability of rate holds in March, with the first rate cut pushed back to June. The dollar index held steady above 99, and 10-year US Treasury yields rose above 4.25%, suppressing gold holding costs with obvious short-term longs taking profits. Middle East situation has not escalated yet, oil prices elevated but haven't triggered new safe-haven demand; this week focuses on US CPI and retail sales data, with stronger data further reinforcing hawkish expectations.
**Technical Analysis**
Daily chart showing consecutive bearish candles, short-term bias weak but dense buying interest at the 5000 level, RSI approaching oversold conditions, unlikely to see one-sided sharp declines.
Support: 5000/4980
Resistance: 5050/5080/5100
Structure: Trading within 5000-5100 consolidation range, breakout will open new direction
**Risk Warning**: Fed hawkish surprises or USD strength could suppress gold prices; geopolitical escalation or inflation weakness could trigger rapid rebounds.