History always repeats itself in crypto, but each cycle hides its script in the details.

Let's look at the timeline: October 2025, Bitcoin touched an all-time high of $126,000. If we follow the rhythm of the previous two bull-bear cycles—December 2017 to December 2018 dropped 85%, November 2021 to November 2022 dropped 77%—then around October 2026, we'll likely see the endgame of this bear market.

Many people are still debating "will it break $69,000?" Honestly, this question is already settled. The previous bull market's peak at $69,000 will inevitably be pierced in this bear market, and it will become one of the strongest support levels for years to come. The logic is simple: in the past two cycles, the bear market lows were far below the previous bull market peaks—2018 low of $3,000 vs. 2017 high of $20,000; 2022 low of $15,500 vs. 2021 high of $69,000. So this time will be the same: from the $126,000 high, the $69,000 psychological level must be broken, and only then will real panic set in and chips completely change hands.

The key question is: how low can it go?

By ratio, if the decline is between 65%-77%, the bottom zone will most likely land in the $30,000-$50,000 range. In an extreme scenario, if it drops 85% like 2018, even below $20,000 is possible. But this time is different: Bitcoin's market dominance has returned to 60%, indicating that outside capital is mainly entering through Bitcoin, and the bloodsucking effect of altcoins is weakening. So the more realistic scenario is: a pullback to the $40,000-$50,000 zone with shrinking volume consolidation, then waiting until late 2026 to early 2027, when the fear index drops below 10—that's when the real "golden opportunity" appears.

For crypto's impact, we need to separate the effects.

If Bitcoin breaks below $69,000, the first reaction will definitely be network-wide liquidations with bulls wiped out. But this isn't necessarily bad for the market—the cleaner the leverage gets cleared, the more solid the foundation for the next bull market. Plus, once the $69,000 level is broken through and recovered, it will become the strongest support level for the next five years, with institutions using it as the baseline for dollar-cost averaging on "digital gold."

Altcoins will have it worse. Tokens like SOL and HYPE that were hot this cycle will likely fall harder than Bitcoin—cut in half at minimum, with half cuts not uncommon. But this is also when projects get filtered—those that survive in the extreme environment of $30,000-$50,000 Bitcoin with ecosystems still building will be real "bombs" in the next cycle.

At this stage, the strategy is actually simple: buy in batches below $60,000, add a little every 10% drop, don't go all-in, and don't short either. Time is on the side of dollar-cost averagers. By 2029, when Bitcoin touches $150,000-$250,000, looking back at today's panic will all be opportunity cost.

To be real: in all these years in crypto, those who made real money are the ones who controlled themselves during bear markets and dared to invest when despair hit. We're not quite there yet, so wait a bit longer. #加密市场上涨 #加密市场上涨 $BTC