# Buffer Valve Shattered: Larijanis Death and the Complete Tilt of Iran's Power Balance

On March 18, 2026, Iran's government officially confirmed that Ali Larijani, the national security chief and secretary of Iran's Supreme National Security Council, was killed in an Israeli airstrike, along with his son Mortaza. This marks the highest-level political figure Iran has lost since former Supreme Leader Khamenei's death. His death is not merely a tactical "decapitation," but will completely shatter the delicate power balance in Tehran's political arena, plunging the already turbulent Middle East into a more unpredictable abyss.

## I. The Decapitated Stabilizer: Why Larijani Is Irreplaceable?

Ali Larijani, despite not being from a clerical background, became the most coordinating "stabilizer" in Iran's political landscape through his deep family roots and extensive experience spanning military, politics, diplomacy, and legislation. He served as Speaker of the Iranian Parliament for three consecutive terms, oversaw the passage of the 2015 nuclear deal, and represented one of the few pragmatists with both nuclear negotiation experience and the Supreme Leader's trust. After Khamenei's assassination and the ensuing power vacuum, Larijani was reappointed as Secretary of the Supreme National Security Council, becoming the actual coordinator of Iran's wartime security affairs:

**Internal Coordinator**: He was the critical "buffer valve" between hardliners and pragmatic diplomats—capable of gaining approval from the Revolutionary Guards and other hardline factions while maintaining communication with moderate figures like President Pezeshkian, preventing factional infighting.

**External Liaison**: He coordinated military operations with "Resistance Front" allies like Hezbollah in Lebanon and Houthi forces in Yemen, while simultaneously maintaining communication with the international community, serving as an important linchpin for Iran to avoid diplomatic isolation.

**Wartime Command Core**: Against the backdrop of sustained U.S.-Israeli pressure, he coordinated the functioning of defense, intelligence, and diplomatic departments, serving as the central figure maintaining coherence and resource allocation efficiency in Iran's wartime decision-making.

This airstrike struck the "vital point" of Iran's power structure—Larijani's death directly severed Iran's wartime command chain, throwing the already fragile succession process into chaos.

## II. Power Balance Tilt: The Inevitable Trend of Hardliners' Complete Takeover

Larijani's departure means Iran's political arena has lost its last centrist capable of balancing all interests. In his wake, hardline conservative forces led by Revolutionary Guards Commander Vahidi, Supreme Leader's military advisor Rezai, and Speaker Kalibadf will rapidly fill the power vacuum:

**Decision-Making Logic Turns Radical**: Freed from Larijani's restraint, Iran's stance on core issues like nuclear matters and regional conflicts will become far less compromising. The "limited dialogue" strategy he previously championed may be completely abandoned in favor of a more confrontational posture, erecting more obstacles to nuclear deal restoration.

**Military Orientation Accelerates**: According to German Middle East experts, Larijani's death signals that Iran's system will "further militarize." Military forces like the Revolutionary Guards will dominate security decision-making, civil departments' voice further weakened, and Iran may accelerate development of ballistic missiles, drones, and other deterrent capabilities.

**Internal Cohesion Faces Tests**: The Larijani family represents the legitimacy of revolutionary credentials and religious lineage in Iran's revolution. His assassination leaves moderates and technocrats without a spiritual pillar. Facing continued Israeli strikes, hardliners will use "revenge" as a rallying cry to consolidate control over the regime, with any compromise branded as "treason."

## III. Middle East Crisis Escalation: Conflict Boundaries Completely Breached

This "decapitation" event completely breaks the basic norms of interstate conflict, sharply elevating the risk of regional spillover:

**"Red Lines" Trampled**: Israel has escalated from assassinating nuclear scientists and overseas commanders to eliminating Iran's highest security official on Iranian soil—tantamount to openly declaring war on Iran. This pinpoint elimination targeting the nation's core leadership has left regional states deeply uneasy, with Saudi Arabia and the UAE beginning to reassess their security strategies.

**Retaliation Chain Activated**: Iran has no way out; in the short term, it will likely mount equivalent retaliation—possibly through Hezbollah firing rockets at northern Israel, utilizing Houthi forces to attack Red Sea shipping lanes, or even launching drone or missile strikes directly at Israeli territory. U.S.-Israeli forces may also leverage this opportunity to expand military operations, attempting to gain tactical advantages during Iran's power vacuum.

**Global Market Upheaval**: Conflict escalation will further threaten energy transport security through the Strait of Hormuz. The International Energy Agency has warned of the "worst-ever supply disruption" in global oil markets, with crude oil and gold prices continuing to soar, exacerbating global inflation pressure and economic uncertainty.

## IV. Future Trajectory: Closure of the Peace Window and Onset of Long-Term Confrontation

Larijani's death is essentially a critical step in the U.S.-Israeli "regime change" strategy toward Iran, and a major setback in Middle East peace:

**Diplomatic Mediation Space Disappears**: With pragmatists like Larijani gone, the possibility of resolving Iran's nuclear issue or reducing regional conflict through diplomatic channels is nearly zero. Mediation efforts by China, Russia, and other nations will face greater resistance, with international organizations like the UN further marginalized.

**Long-Term Confrontation Pattern Solidifies**: Iran-U.S.-Israeli conflict will shift from "proxy wars" to more direct confrontation, with Lebanon, Syria, and Yemen becoming battlegrounds, civilian casualties and refugee crises continuing to worsen.

**Regional Order Restructuring Accelerates**: This event will push Middle Eastern states to realign, with Gulf Cooperation Council states' security cooperation with Israel potentially deepening further, while Iran's alliance with the "Resistance Front" becomes tighter, forming two opposing camps and dramatically reshaping regional order.

## Conclusion: The Abyss After the Buffer Valve's Collapse

Larijani's death represents the complete shattering of Iran's political "buffer valve" and the collapse of the Middle East's last line of peace defense. He once attempted to find balance between religious conservatism and the demands of practical diplomacy, ultimately becoming a casualty of geopolitical competition. In his wake, hardliners' complete seizure of power will drive Iran toward a more radical confrontational path, while sustained U.S.-Israeli pressure will plunge the nation into deeper crisis.

As the power balance completely tilts toward hardliners and "decapitation" becomes routine, this war-torn Middle Eastern region may face a longer darkness than at any previous moment. All we can do is remain vigilant against this crisis's spillover effects and pray that peace's faint light illuminates through the gloom early.