Stop staring at the K-line chart—tonight, the whole village's hopes rest in Uncle Bao's (Powell's) hands.

At 2 AM Beijing time on March 19, the Federal Reserve is holding another "mystery box opening" meeting. Although the market currently has a unified expectation that interest rates will "stay the course," remaining unmoved at 3.50%-3.75%, the real game-changer is hidden in the "dot plot" during the second half of the night.

The script right now is extremely abstract: on one side, the oil barrel in the Middle East is about to explode, crude prices are charging toward 100 bucks, and inflation pressure keeps bouncing up like a spring; on the other side, February's non-farm payroll data is as bad as a rookie's account just entering the market, with unemployment about to break through 4.4%. The Fed is now walking a tightrope over a volcano—raise rates and the economy might be flatlined on the spot; cut rates and inflation might slap you back across the face.

The dot plot everyone's most concerned about will likely shrink from last year's "three consecutive cuts" into "rate cuts as fate allows," or even directly transform into the pure hawkish "zero rate cuts." If Uncle Bao comes out to speak at 2:30 AM with a slightly sharp tone, defining the oil price surge as a "protracted war," then risk assets are probably in for another "deep squat."

The moment the median of the dot plot dares to move up even a millimeter, ETH and altcoin circles are probably going to flip on "turn off the lights and eat ramen" mode tonight.

Advice for those running high leverage: either take profits early to stay safe tonight, or prepare your emergency heart medication, $DOT $ICP $ADA #美联储3月议息会议 after all, under the shadow of this "stagflation," FOMC meetings are best at flip-flopping repeatedly. $ETH