# Powell: Don't Ask, Just Say You Don't Know

The Fed wrapped up its meeting last night. One sentence summary: holding steady, everything as expected, but Powell himself said to be "cautious" about forecasts.

**Meeting Results**
- Interest rates unchanged: 3.5%-3.75%, no surprises
- Dot plot: median 3.4% (year-end), same as December last year → still forecasting 1 rate cut this year

**The core signal from Powell's press conference this time is one word: uncertainty.**

"Inflation hasn't declined as much as we hoped," "rising oil prices are expected to push inflation higher in the near term," "take forecasts with a grain of salt, uncertainty is extremely high," regarding his tenure: will stay on until successor Warsh officially takes office.

For the Fed, this Middle East conflict is beyond their scope. He himself admitted that making economic forecasts is like shooting in the dark — nobody has crystal vision to know what war will bring. See image.

JPMorgan came out with comments at lightning speed, with a very direct stance: the Fed is ignoring Middle East risks, and its optimistic outlook on inflation and employment may be a miscalculation. JPM's latest forecast: zero rate cuts in 2026, possibly even a 25bp rate hike in Q3 2027.

#美联储会议