$BTC rose for 2 weeks, then returned to the starting point in 1 day—this is the norm for liquidity scarcity. The rebound isn't dead, but the breakout has failed. The market hasn't yet proven it can turn above 74k into support, which is the most typical manifestation of insufficient liquidity. In 2026, major exchange spot trading volumes are approximately 25% to 30% lower compared to end-2025, while futures open interest has also increased noticeably, meaning market depth and leverage absorption are both thinning. In this thin order book environment, even modest selling volumes drive prices down faster because the bids aren't thick enough and buy-side repositioning isn't continuous enough. Although US spot Bitcoin ETFs have resumed consecutive net inflows—roughly $767 million per week—which once provided fuel for price surges, BTC remains notably weaker than early-year levels this year, and last week was still down about 19% from January opening positions. Therefore, capital reflow hasn't strengthened enough to approach fundamental structure. What this market fears most isn't bad news itself, but rather "insufficient buy-side depth to absorb bad news," so prices often behave as "rise, rise, fall in one day, chart returns to zero." Watch three things: First, spot ETFs can't sustain consecutive net inflows; Second, trading volume and open interest can't rebound in sync; Third, after a price breakout, whether it can consolidate at higher levels rather than collapse after initial momentum. If spot volume remains persistently low, order books remain thin, and rebounds continue relying mainly on short squeezes, then BTC will likely repeatedly exhibit "slow rises, fast falls"—probably the norm for such liquidity-tight environments in 2026.

BTC-4,59%
View Original
post-image
This page may contain third-party content, which is provided for information purposes only (not representations/warranties) and should not be considered as an endorsement of its views by Gate, nor as financial or professional advice. See Disclaimer for details.
  • Reward
  • Comment
  • Repost
  • Share
Comment
Add a comment
Add a comment
No comments
  • Pin