Powell Finally Told the Truth: No Rate Cuts in 2026

You know what was most ironic last night?

Powell stood on stage and said one sentence.

The room went silent for three seconds.

Then US stocks started diving, Bitcoin crashed from 71,000 directly to 70,500, Nasdaq closed down 1.5%, gold broke below 4,850, hitting a one-month low.

What did he say?

"We project that inflation will make progress, but not as much as we would have hoped."

Translated into plain language:

No rate cuts in 2026.

The dot plot exploded: 7-7, perfectly split.

Let me show you a data point first. This is how the 19 Fed committee members voted on 2026 interest rates:

- 7 people said: shouldn't cut rates this year
- 7 people said: one cut is enough
- 5 people said: could cut 2 times or more

7-7.

Perfectly split down the middle.

What does this mean?

In FOMC history, this kind of "directional conflict" split is extremely rare. Past disagreements were "plus 25 or plus 50"—the direction was consistent. Now it's "should we cut or not"—two groups pulling in opposite directions.

Powell also confirmed this in the press conference:

"Four to five people went from expecting 2 cuts to expecting 1 cut."

This isn't consensus forming—it's two opposing camps each solidifying their positions.

Any surprise in inflation data could cause one group to collectively reverse direction.

The median of 3.4% didn't change, but beneath this 3.4%, two teams are pulling in opposite directions.

What's more dangerous than disagreement?

This kind of symmetrical split.

The Fed Always Chases Inflation Upward

The root of the rate debate is the inflation debate.

Look at these numbers:

December 2024: Fed's first 2026 PCE inflation forecast: 2.1%

March 2025: 2.2%

June 2025: 2.4%

September 2025: 2.6%

December 2025: 2.4% (temporary pullback)

March 2026: 2.7%

Six quarters, cumulative upward revision of 0.6 percentage points.

This isn't the first time.

2025's PCE inflation followed the exact same path. December 2024 forecast was 2.5%, then revised upward every quarter to 2.7%, 3.0%, 3.0%, 2.9%. The final actual value was 2.9%.

The Fed spent an entire year chasing, only barely catching up in the last period.

Now they're saying 2026 is 2.7%.

Based on their own historical track record, 2.7% is likely just the starting point, not the finish line.

It's not a conspiracy.

It's just a pattern.

The Fed's real-time inflation forecast over the past two years has only gone in one direction:

chasing upward.

Powell Said: I'm Not Leaving

But the most explosive thing tonight isn't about rates.

It's something else.

Powell announced in the press conference: he won't leave before his term expires.

His term ends May 15.

But he said: "I have no intention of leaving before this investigation is thoroughly completed."

What investigation?

US prosecutor Jeanine Pirro is investigating the Federal Reserve headquarters renovation project.

And Kevin Warsh, nominated as successor by Trump, was blocked by Senator Tillis in the banking committee.

On the surface, it's a rate decision.

Underneath, the Fed chairman's position is being held hostage simultaneously by a renovation investigation and a senator's veto power.

Think about it.

Really think about it.

So What Does This Mean for Us?

Back to the markets.

Bitcoin broke below 71,000, down nearly 5% in the past 24 hours.

Ethereum down 6.5%.

MicroStrategy (MSTR) down 5%.

Bitmine (BMNR) down 6%.

Galaxy (GLXY) down nearly 7%.

Gemini (GEMI) down 15%, near its lowest since IPO.

All red.

Why?

Because when rate cuts started in September 2024, the market drew a clear line: by end of 2025, rates down to 3.4%, then 4 more cuts.

Six quarters have passed.

Last night's dot plot told us this line has completely deformed.

September 2024, the Fed expected 2026 year-end rates at 2.9%.

Last night: 3.4%.

50 basis points higher than initial expectations.

What does 50 basis points mean?

It's your loan payment.

It's your position's leverage.

It's your holding cost.

Another Thing Powell Said

Someone asked at the press conference: does the current situation resemble stagflation from the 1970s?

Powell smiled.

He said: "That is not the case currently. Unemployment remains close to its long-term normal level, inflation is only slightly above target. I would reserve the word 'stagflation' for more serious situations."

Then he added:

"What we're facing currently is a certain tension between our objectives. We're working to find ways to manage this challenge."

Translated into plain language:

We know there's a problem.

But we don't know how to solve it.

Finally, Something Hard to Hear

Have you noticed a pattern?

Every time the Fed meets, markets wait for "good news."

Every time Powell opens his mouth, markets wait for "dovish signals."

But over the past two years, every time we've waited, the result has been disappointment.

2023: waited for rate cuts, got rate hikes instead.

2024: waited for rate cuts, got "higher for longer."

2025: waited for rate cuts, got dot plot moving up.

March 2026: waited for rate cuts, got 7-7 split.

Markets are always waiting for the Fed to turn.

The Fed is always saying: wait a bit longer.

Wait for what?

Wait for inflation to come down.

Wait for data confirmation.

Wait for "the progress we hope for."

But inflation just won't come down.

Data won't confirm.

"The progress we hope for" just isn't coming.

That's why markets keep falling.

That's why Bitcoin keeps shaking.

That's why everyone keeps asking: when will this end?

Nobody Knows

Powell himself said:

"Oil price shocks are reflected in higher inflation expectations."

"But nobody knows how long this impact will persist."

Nobody knows.

These four words are tonight's most important information.

Not the dot plot.

Not the inflation forecast.

Not how many cuts.

It's the Fed chairman himself saying: I don't know.

If even he doesn't know.

If even 19 committee members split 7-7.

If even inflation forecasts keep chasing upward.

How would you know?

What would you bet on?

What would you all-in on?

So What Now?

I don't know.

But I know one thing:

When the Fed itself can't see clearly,

the only correct strategy is to not take sides.

Don't bet on rate cuts.

Don't bet on no rate cuts.

Don't bet on inflation coming down.

Don't bet on inflation going up.

Wait.

Wait until one of those 19 people starts moving in the same direction.

Wait until Powell says "I figured it out" one day.

Until then.

Cash is king.

Staying alive is more important than making money.

Patience is worth more than courage.

Share this with whoever is still all-in.

Tell them: it's time to wait a bit. #美联储利率决议