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Bitcoin has crashed hard! Should it bounce now? Where can we short again? Let's take a look.
1. The recent decline is no accident. As shown in the chart, Bitcoin has hit a high-pressure line and encountered resistance along the trendline before falling lower, very neatly structured. This decline will likely first come to the lower edge of the consolidation zone. Once it breaks through, the consequences will be severe! Will it break through?
2. I think the probability is quite high because the previous descending flag pattern broke after the Fed's rate decision. Additionally, Bitcoin has declined for 1-2 weeks after 4 of the previous rate decisions. This time doesn't look optimistic.
3. However, our trading approach has always prioritized stability. I've already taken profits on some short positions to lock in gains, so even if a bounce occurs, we can comfortably short at higher prices with more flexibility.
4. In the short term, around 69,500 is a previous consolidation zone with some support. I want to see if we can get a larger bounce here before shorting. The more ideal levels are around 71,800 and 73,000.
5. This decline's endpoint will likely reach around 68,000 near the lower edge of the upward trendline. However, this is just a rough zone—the trendline isn't as precise as a ruler, which is why I took partial profits first.
6. We've shorted 3 times around 74,000 over the past two weeks, all successful, and we've taken comprehensive profit-taking at lower levels during the decline. We didn't aggressively bet on a definite breakdown. That's why even after so many rallies we still have capital to respond, and that's called position management.
7. Of course, I'm bearish long-term—it's just a matter of time before breaking the previous low of 60,000, so I'm still holding 30% short positions to chase larger profits. These funds might seem like a lot, but they're all from my previous wins; I'm using profits to gamble for bigger gains with higher avg prices—completely fearless, real-time operations~$BTC