Can the Strait of Hormuz Be Unlocked?

As you can see, there is a distance of about 800-900 kilometers between Kharg Island and Bandar Abbas, and the strategic function of these two points is also different. Bandar Abbas is the military center that holds the entrance to the Strait of Hormuz. Iran’s naval elements, coastal defense capacity, and ability to exert pressure over the strait are concentrated there. Kharg Island, on the other hand, is Iran’s economic lifeline; about 90 percent of Iran’s oil exports flow through this terminal.
Making this distinction correctly is very important. Because a possible U.S. operation should not be read as a single piece invasion plan connecting these two regions, but as two separate pressure axes within the same strategic framework. On the Bandar Abbas front, the aim would be to break Iran’s capacity to close Hormuz and to impose pressure through mining, missiles, and drones over the strait. On the Kharg front, the aim would be, if necessary, to maximize economic pressure by targeting Iran’s oil revenues. The recent news flow also shows that the U.S. priority is first to get the strait working again, and then, if necessary, to harden the tools of economic pressure.
I think Washington’s first choice would not be a large scale ground invasion. Because it is a bottomless pit. The more likely path appears to be a strategy of intense air sea suppression, mine clearing, establishing an escort corridor, and gradually paralyzing Iran’s coastal threat elements. The reason for this is very clear. In large and heavily defended areas like Bandar Abbas, a permanent ground engagement could create political cost and escalation risk rather than military success.
The process will most likely move forward in several stages. The first stage would be intense suppression against Iran’s speedboats, mine laying capacity, mobile missile batteries, drone bases, and coastal radar networks. The second stage is the effort to create an actual safe corridor for tanker traffic. The third stage is carrying the pressure into the economic dimension. If Iran does not step back and continues attacks on civilian shipping and Gulf energy infrastructure, options to increase pressure on Kharg could come onto the table much more seriously.
The most sensitive threshold here is Kharg Island. Because if Bandar Abbas is targeted to pull Iran’s military teeth, Kharg Island is targeted to squeeze Iran’s windpipe. The latest reports in The Guardian and Reuters show that blockade or more advanced scenarios are being discussed. But that is exactly why Kharg is a very dangerous card. If Iran feels a real existential pressure on Kharg, the likelihood rises that it could fully mine Hormuz, launch widespread attacks on energy infrastructure in the Gulf, or move the war onto a more asymmetric and uncontrolled line. So pressure on Kharg may make sense militarily, but the political and market consequences could be much harsher.
For this reason, the U.S. may first try to make Iran’s capacity to threaten the strait unsustainable along the Bandar Abbas axis. The goal is not to gain territory, but to make maritime traffic functional again. Kharg is the second act pressure tool; not the first direct move, but the option of economic strangulation that would come into play if Iran keeps escalating. But if the process drags on, the event stops being only a military crisis. Oil, LNG, insurance, freight, supply chains, and inflation expectations can all deteriorate at the same time.
In summary, the connection that must be established between Bandar Abbas and Kharg Island is not geographic, but strategic. One is the military lock of Hormuz, the other is the main valve of the Iranian economy. From the U.S. perspective, the rational plan is to pull Iran’s military teeth around Bandar Abbas and secure the strait, while using Kharg as the final and hard button of economic pressure if needed. But if the process drags on, this crisis will no longer remain only an Iran-U.S. conflict; it could turn into a much larger geoeconomic shock capable of permanently disrupting the global energy system, the inflation path, and market pricing.