#创作者冲榜 Why Couldn't Risk-Off Sentiment "Save" Yesterday's Gold Price?

The "Inflation Logic" of Geopolitical Conflicts Backfires:
Last night, Reuters reported a U.S. military buildup in the Middle East, which logically should be bullish for gold; however, the market's current interpretation is: troop increase = prolonged Strait of Hormuz blockade = crude oil prices remain $100+ = inflation cannot decline = the Federal Reserve must maintain higher interest rates for longer.

Liquidity Squeeze:
Due to gold prices breaking through the $5,000 and $4,800 levels consecutively this week, a large number of leveraged long positions triggered liquidations. During Friday's U.S. session, there was a clear "indiscriminate selloff," with institutions selling gold as an ATM to replenish margin for other assets (such as plunging tech stocks).

Interference from Trump's "Contraction" Rhetoric:
Late Friday rumors about Trump considering "tightening Middle East operations," though unconfirmed, prompted some speculative positions betting on "full-scale war" to lock in profits, further depressing the premium.

Next Week's Trend Analysis (March 23-27):
This week, New York gold opened Monday at 5010, reached a high of 5049, a low of 4478, and closed early Saturday morning at 4492, with a weekly decline of -10.57%. Last week 68% predicted a decline and 32% predicted an increase. Most of you made accurate directional forecasts. So what do you think the overall direction will be next week—up or down?

Next week, gold will enter a "post-Fed decision" correction period, with the logical focus shifting completely from geopolitical concerns to U.S. Treasury yield pricing.

1. Core Logic Points:
Rate Pricing Recalibration (Most Important):
The Federal Reserve's March decision reduced rate-cut expectations from 3 times to 1 time, meaning the "opportunity cost" of holding gold has surged. Against the backdrop of U.S. dollar cash yields above 3.75%, gold as a non-yielding asset still faces insufficient capital-attracting ability near $4,600.

Short-covering Pressure:
After consecutive sharp declines, technical indicators (RSI) have entered oversold territory. If there are no new negative developments in early next week, gold prices will have strong technical rebound demand, targeting $4,730.

The "Double-Edged Sword" of Oil Prices:
Monitor whether crude oil can stabilize and decline. If oil prices fall, inflation expectations will decrease, and the Federal Reserve's hawkish stance may soften—this could be gold's "lifeline."

On the technical side, gold's weekly chart gained weak support near the 20-day moving average (around 4500). If next week fails to promptly rebound to near 4800, subsequent market action may challenge the 4000 round-number level.

ETF Position Tracking

Gold ETF Position Report Interpretation
March 20

The latest data from SPDR Gold Trust, the world's largest gold ETF, shows that as of March 20, its gold holdings decreased by 5.144 tonnes compared to the previous trading day, with current total holdings declining to 1,056.991 tonnes. Building on prior consecutive position reductions, this latest outflow represents a significant decline, indicating that institutional capital continues to reduce positions at elevated levels, with fund flows sending further bearish signals.

From the gold price trend perspective, overnight gold overall showed a rally-and-retreat pattern with weak oscillations. During the European session, gold prices briefly continued their rebound momentum, but lacked upside momentum; entering the U.S. session, affected by U.S. dollar strength and rate expectations, gold prices gradually retreated and gave back intraday gains, ultimately closing at relatively lows, indicating that high-level selling pressure remains evident.

Fund flows and price trends form resonance. On one hand, ETF continuous position reduction reflects mid-term capital accelerating profit-taking at elevated levels; on the other hand, multiple failed gold rebounds and shift to declines further reinforce cautious sentiment among short-term capital.

At the macro level, the Federal Reserve's overall stance remains cautious post-meeting, with near-term rate-cut expectations not significantly enhanced, creating selling pressure on gold. Meanwhile, although geopolitical risks still provide certain support, gold's upside momentum is constrained under rate expectations dominating the market.

Overall, sustained ETF position reductions combined with gold's rally-retreat pattern suggest that in the near term, gold may continue oscillating weakly, with volatility likely amplifying. Subsequent focus should be on whether fund flows stabilize and whether gold can reestablish positions at key levels; otherwise, the correction cycle may extend further.