The Japan yield curve is the story nobody in crypto or tech is watching.

But it connects to everything.
Here's the chain:
Iran mines the Strait of Hormuz. Oil spikes. Japan imports 90% of its energy. Most of it transited Hormuz.
Energy costs spike. Inflation expectations spike. Japanese bond yields hit 27-year highs. The 10Y at 2.32%. The 40Y at 3.77%.
When Japanese yields rise this fast, their institutions start bringing money home. Japanese life insurers hold trillions in foreign assets. Japan holds $1.1 TRILLION in US Treasuries alone.
To defend the yen at 160, Japan sells US Treasuries. US yields rise. At $39 trillion in US debt, every basis point costs billions.
The BOJ can't ease because oil is driving inflation higher. The Fed can't cut because the same oil is driving US inflation higher. Both central banks are prisoners of the same 21 miles of water.
Remember August 5, 2024. The last carry trade unwind crashed the Nikkei 12% in a single session. That was a 15 basis point hike during peacetime.
This is a 27-year yield extreme during a war.