Futures
Access hundreds of perpetual contracts
TradFi
Gold
One platform for global traditional assets
Options
Hot
Trade European-style vanilla options
Unified Account
Maximize your capital efficiency
Demo Trading
Introduction to Futures Trading
Learn the basics of futures trading
Futures Events
Join events to earn rewards
Demo Trading
Use virtual funds to practice risk-free trading
Launch
CandyDrop
Collect candies to earn airdrops
Launchpool
Quick staking, earn potential new tokens
HODLer Airdrop
Hold GT and get massive airdrops for free
Launchpad
Be early to the next big token project
Alpha Points
Trade on-chain assets and earn airdrops
Futures Points
Earn futures points and claim airdrop rewards
More
Bitcoin’s next move up may depend more on oil prices than crypto
Bitcoin has room to rally if diplomacy between Washington and Tehran continues to ease pressure on oil.
Since March 23, traces of significant de-escalation have emerged, with President Donald Trump ordering a 5-day pause for “constructive conversations.”
At the same time, reports have emerged that the United States had sent Iran a 15-point proposal through Pakistan, while Turkey also passed messages between the two sides.
While there is no ceasefire yet, and there is no sign of a settled negotiating track. Iran has publicly denied direct talks with Washington, and an Iranian military spokesperson said the United States was “negotiating with itself.”
Still, the signs of diplomacy have been real enough for markets to react, with Brent crude down 5.2% to $99.01 a barrel and US West Texas Intermediate down 5.1% to $87.62.
On the other hand, Bitcoin rose 1.6% to maintain its steady resilience above $71,000 as traders pared back some of the inflation and rate fears that had built up during nearly four weeks of war.
Related Reading
Bitcoin is now the first place traders react to war risk, and $243M was wiped to prove it
Bitcoin now reacts faster than traditional hedges, mapping risk shifts across liquidity, flows, and macro stress in real time.
Mar 24, 2026 · Liam ‘Akiba’ Wright
Why this tentative diplomacy moves market
The supply side explains the outsized reaction to headlines that amount to little more than mediated messaging.
Iran is OPEC’s third-largest producer, pumping about 3.3 million barrels per day of crude and another 1.3 million bpd of condensate and other liquids. About 90% of its crude leaves through Kharg Island via the Strait of Hormuz, with exports recently running between 1.1 million and 1.5 million bpd.
Data from the US Energy Information Administration shows that flows through the Strait of Hormuz averaged 20.9 million bpd in the first half of 2025, representing roughly 20% of global petroleum liquids consumption. About 20% of the global liquefied natural gas trade also transited the strait in 2024.
However, that volume has all but halted, with Andre Dragosch, Bitwise’s Europe head of research, pointing out that there has been “1 ship today” that has passed through the path.
Oil Passage Through Straits of Hormuz (Source: Andre Dragosch)
So, any discussion of ceasefire terms, shipping access, or sanctions relief therefore carries direct, volumetric market relevance for the oil market.
The forward curve sharpens the case. In its March outlook, the EIA forecast that Brent would stay above $95 per barrel over the next two months, then fall below $80 in the third quarter and toward $70 by year-end if disruptions ease and inventories rebuild.
The agency projected global oil inventories to rise by an average of 1.9 million bpd in 2026, once production again outpaces consumption.
This means that a credible diplomatic process does not need to create an immediate surplus supply. It only needs to make that softer path look more probable.
The European Central Bank’s March 2026 staff projections quantify the stakes. The ECB modeled an adverse energy scenario with oil at $119 per barrel and gas at €87 per megawatt-hour in the second quarter, lifting euro-zone inflation by 0.9 percentage points.
Federal Reserve research separately finds that higher oil prices directly push up headline inflation and, over about eight quarters, create a smaller but statistically significant pass-through into food and core prices.
Considering this, crypto market maker Wintermute put it in trading terms, explaining that if Brent stabilizes near $100 and diplomacy holds, the inflation fears tied to energy disruption should ease enough to let “some of the rate-cut expectations erased last week” return.
Related Reading
Bitcoin price jumps above $70,000 as US announces shock pause on Iran strikes
Diplomatic breakthrough halts aggression and fuels crypto market rally, with Bitcoin leading the charge.
Mar 23, 2026 · Oluwapelumi Adejumo
The oil-to-rates transmission
The bullish case for Bitcoin here is that lower oil prices ease inflation pressure. Additionally, it reduces the likelihood that central banks will keep rates tighter for longer and improves the liquidity backdrop for risk assets more broadly.
Notably, Bitcoin has mostly traded less like a geopolitical hedge and more like a high-beta expression of global liquidity conditions during the ongoing US-Iran conflict.
For context, the top crypto’s recent rebound above $70,000 not not driven by any crypto-native catalyst. Instead, this came amid a sharp recovery in technology shares and a stabilization of broader market risk.
CryptoSlate Daily Brief
Daily signals, zero noise.
Market-moving headlines and context delivered every morning in one tight read.
5-minute digest 100k+ readers
Email address
Get the brief
Free. No spam. Unsubscribe any time.
Whoops, looks like there was a problem. Please try again.
You’re subscribed. Welcome aboard.
The flow data reinforces that reading. According to CoinShares, digital-asset investment products pulled in $230 million last week, with $219 million going to Bitcoin, even after $405 million in outflows following the Federal Open Market Committee meeting.
CoinShares attributed the pressure to the Fed’s hawkish stance, not to the Iran conflict. The dominant driver has been rates and liquidity and not geopolitics in isolation.
That is why the repricing in interest-rate futures carries weight. Over the past several weeks, the conflict threatened to deliver a stagflation shock as oil prices surged to record levels.
_ CryptoSlate_ had previously reported that rate futures had implied virtually no chance of Fed cuts before mid-2027 as the conflict drove energy higher. However, after Tuesday’s diplomacy headlines, bets on a December rate hike dropped to about 16% from 25%.
Federal Reserve Governor Michael Barr reinforced the hawkish backdrop on March 24, saying policymakers may need to keep rates steady for “some time” and that he would need to see evidence that inflation is “sustainably retreating” before considering further cuts.
Related Reading
Bitcoin focus flips from oil to bonds as US and Japan 10-year yields spike into a critical week
A cross-market reset is underway, with rising sovereign yields tightening conditions and forcing a repricing of risk.
Mar 23, 2026 · Liam ‘Akiba’ Wright
What could happen next?
A drawn-out diplomatic process with no formal breakthrough could still help Bitcoin if it caps oil. Brent holding near current levels, or drifting lower as shipping fears ease, would likely keep pressure off yields and reduce the urgency around higher-for-longer policy pricing.
The EIA’s path toward sub-$80 oil in the third quarter offers a macro framework for that outcome. Under that kind of easing, BTC would have a clearer opening to revisit and push through the highs reached earlier this month.
Meanwhile, a more credible ceasefire path would strengthen that case. The larger effect would come from convincing markets that Hormuz is moving back toward normal use, that regional energy infrastructure is no longer in the crosshairs, and that the inflation shock from the war is beginning to fade.
The ECB’s projections show how much difference that can make. Even small changes in the assumed oil path produce meaningful changes in inflation and growth forecasts.
However, a collapse in talks would revive the entire chain in reverse. Oil would likely rise again, shipping-risk fears would rebuild, and markets would have to price a tougher policy path from the Fed and other central banks.
Past market performances have already shown how quickly that adjustment can happen. In the space of a few days, traders swung from expecting cuts later this year to pricing in a meaningful chance of a December hike, before easing those bets when oil fell amid diplomatic headlines.
Bitcoin can still rise during wartime, but the cleaner path higher comes when the energy shock begins to unwind.
Posted in
Author View profile →
Oluwapelumi Adejumo
Senior Reporter • CryptoSlate
Oluwapelumi values Bitcoin’s potential. He imparts insights on a range of topics like DeFi, hacks, mining and culture, underlining transformative power.
@hardeyjumoh LinkedIn
Editor View profile →
Liam ‘Akiba’ Wright
Editor-in-Chief • CryptoSlate
Also known as “Akiba,” Liam Wright is the Editor-in-Chief at CryptoSlate and host of the SlateCast. He believes that decentralized technology has the potential to make widespread positive change.
@akibablade LinkedIn
Context
Related coverage
Switch categories to dive deeper or gain broader context.
ETF
Morgan Stanley’s first bank-issued Bitcoin ETF is “imminent” – will sell BTC directly to clients
A Wall Street bank is moving Bitcoin inside its own system, shifting who controls how BTC reaches client portfolios.
4 hours ago
Mining
Bitcoin miners start funding pivot to AI with debt while selling BTC to stay liquid
CoinShares’ latest mining report suggests the biggest shift is that stressed miners are selling coins, stronger operators are pivoting into AI, and listed mining stocks are becoming less pure Bitcoin proxies than many investors assume.
7 hours ago
Bitcoin falling after Fed meetings is becoming systemic — and it’s not about the decision
Legislation · 21 hours ago
Bitcoin is down 43%, yet almost every other crypto has lost more
Trading · 23 hours ago
BlackRock’s Bitcoin ETF boom still falls short of what it needs to make serious money
ETF · 1 day ago
A rare Bitcoin reorg just showed why six confirmations may not guarantee a final payment
Mining · 1 day ago
Politics
Why crypto is now too embedded in US markets for regulators to keep making it up as they go
The CFTC’s new Innovation Task Force is less about one agency reshuffle than a bigger reality: crypto is now too politically sensitive and financially embedded for US regulators to keep improvising.
1 day ago
Analysis
Bitcoin faces pressure after Fed outlook shifts as PMI data points to 1% growth and inflation near 4%
Fresh PMI numbers gave markets a stark warning that slowing growth may not bring lower inflation.
2 days ago
Bitcoin faces a new problem even while price holds – too few holders are actually in profit
Market · 2 days ago
Kentucky may force crypto wallet makers to build ways to unlock user funds
Wallets · 2 days ago
Market swings by $3 trillion as Bitcoin price explodes upward in 5 minutes
Politics · 3 days ago
Bitcoin price jumps above $70,000 as US announces shock pause on Iran strikes
TradFi · 3 days ago
Macro
Bitcoin is now the first place traders react to war risk, and $243M was wiped to prove it
Bitcoin now reacts faster than traditional hedges, mapping risk shifts across liquidity, flows, and macro stress in real time.
2 days ago
Bear Market
Why investors sold gold to raise cash as Bitcoin failed its “safe haven” test
Markets prioritized cash flow over safe-haven narratives as weekly shocks continue to drop.
3 days ago
Bitcoin ETFs pull in billions as gold slides into bear market, leaving investors watching the next liquidity shift
Analysis · 3 days ago
Bitcoin focus flips from oil to bonds as US and Japan 10-year yields spike into a critical week
Macro · 3 days ago
Why crypto hacks don’t end and continue even when the money is gone
Analysis · 4 days ago
White House faces Iran war bill that is worth nearly 3 million Bitcoin
Politics · 4 days ago
T-REX Network and Zama Launch Institutional-Grade Confidentiality Infrastructure for RWA Tokenization
Zama’s FHE protocol empowers T-REX Network’s ledger, enabling secure onchain operations for institutional tokenization.
4 hours ago
BYDFi Expands European Reach with Next Block Expo 2026 Sponsorship in Warsaw
BYDFi engages with industry leaders and enthusiasts through networking, workshops, and an enticing mystery giveaway at one of Europe’s largest crypto events.
1 day ago
BNB Chain Kicks Off University Dev Roadshow at NYU Today
PR · 2 days ago
RIV Coin Launches on Solana to Bridge Institutional Capital with DeFi Infrastructure
PR · 2 days ago
Playnance Unveils the First Democratic Social Gaming Protocol, Surpassing 1M GCOIN Holders
PR · 3 days ago
$METAWIN Presale Raises $350,000 in Hours
PR · 6 days ago
Disclaimer
Our writers’ opinions are solely their own and do not reflect the opinion of CryptoSlate. None of the information you read on CryptoSlate should be taken as investment advice, nor does CryptoSlate endorse any project that may be mentioned or linked to in this article. Buying and trading cryptocurrencies should be considered a high-risk activity. Please do your own due diligence before taking any action related to content within this article. Finally, CryptoSlate takes no responsibility should you lose money trading cryptocurrencies. For more information, see our company disclaimers.