$1.416 billion $BTC options expire on March 27, with Deribit’s 40% open interest wiped out overnight. Max pain USD 75,000, actual settlement price USD 65,720 — market makers win decisively.

Put option premiums far exceed Call. Translation: Institutions are not betting on an increase, they are spending money on insurance.
On the same day, BTC ETF had a net outflow of $171.3 million. IBIT -$41.9 million, FBTC -$32.8 million, BITB -$33.1 million — it’s not just one entity fleeing, it’s a collective reduction in positions.
This is not panic, it’s risk control.
Q1 2026 ETF overview: Total net inflow $18.7 billion, AUM surpasses $128 billion. However, there have been consecutive outflows in the last week, with end-of-quarter rebalancing compounded by geopolitical risks from Iran.
If in the first week of April the ETF returns to net inflow and the daily average >$10 million, then the end of quarter rebalancing confirmation will occur, and a rebound window will open. Conversely, if there are continuous net outflows for 5 days, the support at USD 60,000 will be tested.
Observation trigger: IBIT single-day flow direction.