Why is there so much volatility and a general downward trend in the markets?

- Main Cause:
Middle East Tensions (US-Israel-Iran conflict)Oil prices have risen to the $100-116 range
(Concerns over supply disruptions due to the Strait of Hormuz risk). This is fueling global inflation.
- Inflation and Interest Rate Effects:
Rising energy costs increase inflation concerns → Expectations of rate cuts by the Fed and other central banks weaken (even some scenarios discuss rate hikes). This is negative for stocks.
- Risk Appetite Decline:
Investors are moving out of stocks and into safe havens (bonds). Prolonged conflict can even disrupt the bond rally.
- Additional Factors:
Trump-era policies (tariffs), global growth concerns, and geopolitical uncertainty.
Will the decline continue?
In the Short Term:
High risk of decline. The duration and intensity of the war are decisive; if the possibility of ground operations increases, further downward pressure may occur.
Positive Scenario:
If news of a ceasefire, negotiations, or diplomacy emerges, a quick recovery is possible (short rallies have occurred in recent days).
In the Long Term:
Geopolitical shocks are usually temporary, but sustained high oil prices increase the risk of stagflation (high inflation + low growth).
Recommendation:
Volatility is very high; closely monitor news flows.