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Just stumbled upon something interesting – a 150-year-old economic cycle theory from Samuel Benner that's still worth thinking about when you're planning your trading strategy. This guy figured out periods when to make money back in 1875, and honestly, the pattern is weirdly compelling.
So here's the basic framework: Benner believed markets follow repeating cycles roughly every 18-20 years, and he split them into three distinct periods. The first type is what he called panic years – financial crises and market collapses. Think 1927, 1945, 1965, 1981, 1999, 2019, and looking ahead to 2035 and 2053. During these periods, the advice is simple: don't panic sell. Just hold steady and wait it out.
Then you've got boom years, the money-making periods when prices are surging and markets are recovering strong. These are your windows to take profits and sell. The list includes years like 1928, 1935, 1943, 1953, 1960, 1968, 1973, 1980, 1989, 1996, 2000, 2007, 2016, 2020, and interestingly 2026 is predicted as a boom year. After that comes 2034, 2043, and 2054.
The third category is recession and decline years – when prices drop and the economy slows down. This is when smart money buys. Years like 1924, 1931, 1942, 1951, 1958, 1969, 1978, 1985, 1996, 2005, 2012, 2023, and projected years like 2032, 2040, 2050, 2059. The strategy here is straightforward: accumulate assets when they're cheap, then hold until the boom period arrives.
The whole thesis basically comes down to this: buy low during recessions, hold through the panics, then sell high when boom years hit. It's a cyclical framework that suggests there are predictable periods when to make money if you understand the pattern.
Now, here's the catch – and Benner himself acknowledged this – it's based on historical cycles and patterns, not some iron law. Real markets get bent by geopolitics, wars, tech breakthroughs, policy shifts, and a hundred other variables. So treat this as a useful lens for thinking about long-term trends, not gospel. But it's fascinating how this 1875 theory still generates discussion in crypto and traditional markets today. Worth having on your radar when you're thinking about your entry and exit points.