Patience and wait for $BTC and the bottom of the US stock market

From a macro perspective, this round of market decline is not surprising and is not the first time it has happened. As early as December last year, I was warning about the risk of a pullback in the US stock market; on the crypto side, since September and October last year, the overall outlook has also been bearish.
Currently, the market attributes the cause to geopolitical conflicts, but in my view, this is more of a trigger rather than the fundamental reason. The real drivers behind this adjustment are a combination of several factors: technical warnings that have been given for a while, the market entering a mid-term election cycle, and the backdrop of rising inflation putting pressure on global central banks to shift back to a hawkish stance. The rise in oil prices actually amplifies all of this.
Looking at historical data, the average pullback of the S&P 500 during mid-term election years is about 15%. But this cycle is somewhat special because of the added variable of rising oil prices. Historically, during major oil crises, the S&P 500 has fallen by nearly 30%. So, if this decline falls between 15% and 30%, it’s within a reasonable range.
Even if the decline later turns out to be deeper than current market expectations, it’s not a black swan; rather, it creates opportunities for long-term investors.
My strategy is quite simple: I won’t wait for a “perfect bottom,” but will observe as I go, confirming the bottom zone based on some key trigger signals, while gradually building long-term positions in batches throughout this year.
Currently, the idea that BTC has already bottomed is not very convincing. Whether it’s macro structure, technical indicators, or the overall risk environment, none have provided clear signals yet.
From a cycle perspective, this bear market has lasted about 6 months so far, whereas previous cycles have generally lasted over 10 months; in terms of retracement, historically BTC has fallen at least 70% from its high during bear markets, and this cycle is currently around 53%.
Each retracement is narrowing, but at this point, it’s hard to say that the decline is over.
So, my view is: starting from a 60% retracement, you can actually enter a long-term allocation zone, but I will still wait for long-term signals to confirm the major bottom.
My current dollar-cost averaging range remains unchanged, roughly between 40,000 and 50,000, taking it slow and not rushing.
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