Today’s Market Outlook (Weekly Monday)

1. Trend Analysis
1. Trend Analysis
Short-term rebounds are facing clear resistance, bullish momentum is insufficient, and the probability of a pullback from high levels increases. Overall, the outlook is bearish, with a focus on shorting at rallies.
2. Core Bearish Logic
1. Weak volume on rebounds, clear resistance
Prices rebound to key resistance zones with decreasing volume, indicating weak capital support. This is a typical weak rebound, prone to quick reversal.
2. Indicators turning downward
4-hour RSI is retreating from high levels, KDJ forms a death cross, MACD red bars are shortening, signaling a gradual emergence of bearish momentum.
3. Structural weakness
Lower highs are forming without surpassing previous highs, short-term upward structure is broken, correlating with a weak Bitcoin, prone to follow-down movements.
3. Key Levels
• Shorting Range: 2090–2110
• Stop Loss: Above 2130
• First Target: 2050–2040
• Second Target: 2000 (round number)
4. Trading Strategy
• Short in batches at 2090–2110 during rebounds
• Strictly place stop loss above 2130, exit if broken, do not hold through the break
• Once the first target is reached, reduce positions; remaining positions depend on the near 2000 level. The overall bias remains bearish, with a focus on shorting at rallies.
2. Core Bearish Logic
1. Weak volume on rebounds, clear resistance
Prices rebound to key resistance zones with decreasing volume, indicating weak capital support. This is a typical weak rebound, prone to quick reversal.
2. Indicators turning downward
4-hour RSI is retreating from high levels, KDJ forms a death cross, MACD red bars are shortening, signaling a gradual emergence of bearish momentum.
3. Structural weakness
Lower highs are forming without surpassing previous highs, short-term upward structure is broken, correlating with a weak Bitcoin, prone to follow-down movements.
3. Key Levels
• Shorting Range: 2090–2110
• Stop Loss: Above 2130
• First Target: 2050–2040
• Second Target: 2000 (round number)
4. Trading Strategy
• Short in batches at 2090–2110 during rebounds
• Strictly place stop loss above 2130, exit if broken, do not hold through the break
• Once the first target is reached, reduce positions; remaining positions depend on the near 2000 level.
Bitcoin: Pullback to 2120–2140 can be a shorting opportunity
First Target: around 2080
Second Target: around 2050 (cautiously)