#Gate广场四月发帖挑战 Iran-Israel Ceasefire: Bitcoin surges—where is the top?

As crypto fear and greed indices struggle in extreme panic zones, short-term geopolitical tensions ease, and ceasefire agreements take effect, Bitcoin skyrocketed from 67,000 to 72,700 within 2 hours. European STOXX 50 futures surged 5.3%, German DAX futures rose 5.2%, and European natural gas prices plummeted 20%. Behind this global market frenzy are short-term news hype, precise capital harvesting, and a huge fog surrounding Bitcoin’s future trajectory.
So: Is this short-term easing the end of the crisis or the beginning of turbulence? Is the 72,700 high a sign of continued upward movement or just a trap? Ordinary traders have already been repeatedly sliced and diced: chasing oil and gold on short-term news leaves them confused; chasing Bitcoin higher gets them caught in volatility; shorting leads to liquidation as funds push prices up.

“Unusual events often hide something strange,” this rally is built on fragile short-term news. With many uncertainties ahead, we prefer to hold back, observe, and avoid risking all our capital. Greed always leads to losses.

1. 24 Hours of Panic: Short-term easing sparks global markets—Is Bitcoin just following the trend?
The news of short-term geopolitical easing is like a stone causing ripples in global markets, but the core is all about capital manipulation through news hype.
1. Short-term easing details: It’s just a temporary window. Future developments are unpredictable. Confirmed reports indicate a temporary ceasefire agreement has been reached, effective at a specified time, lasting two weeks. The key is ensuring key shipping lanes remain open. Both sides will soon start new negotiations, and parties are temporarily joining the ceasefire. This is only short-term easing, not long-term stability. Previously, markets were tense, but within hours, a reversal occurred—driven by profit-seeking capital. Be cautious: some parties may still have small moves, and the ceasefire’s implementation is uncertain. If negotiations falter or tensions rise again, all this euphoria could vanish instantly.
2. Global market linkage: European markets celebrate, cryptocurrencies follow suit. The easing of geopolitical tensions reduces risk aversion, prompting funds to flow from safe assets to risk assets. Europe benefits most:
European stock futures soar: STOXX 50 +5.3%, DAX +5.2%, FTSE 100 +2.9%. The main reason is the easing of geopolitical tensions, alleviating concerns over energy supply and regional spread, prompting a normal market reaction of funds returning to equities.
European bank stocks react: Deutsche Bank and Deutsche Bank pre-market up 6.3%-7.4%. On one hand, easing tensions reduce credit and overseas risks; on the other, one bank recently issued RMB bonds, boosting market confidence. Short-term easing further lifts stock prices.
**European natural gas prices drop 20%**: During tense times, markets worry about blocked shipping lanes, energy transport disruptions, and rising gas prices. After easing, shipping expectations improve, supply concerns ease, and prices fall—normal market fluctuations.
Cryptocurrencies also rally: Bitcoin from 67,000 to 72,700 is mainly profit-taking by safe-haven funds and short-term speculative inflows, not because Bitcoin’s fundamentals have improved. Its core logic remains halving cycles and global liquidity. Short-term geopolitical news is just hype, which explains the rapid oscillation after the surge.
3. Bloodbath harvest: 120k traders liquidated—retailers’ deadly misconception. CoinGlass data shows 120,547 liquidations in 24 hours, totaling $597 million, with the largest single liquidation at $11.79 million. In essence, countless retail traders are being harvested by capital, losing everything.
In face of such news-driven markets, blindly following trades is gambling. Better to stay on the sidelines and protect your capital.

2. Bitcoin’s surge to 72,700: Is it a continuation or just a flash in the pan?
Many retail traders cheer “bull market is here” after Bitcoin’s rise, but this rally looks more like capital’s smoke screen. Short-term euphoria won’t change the long-term trend—don’t be fooled by appearances.
1. The essence of the surge: Short-term hype, not real value.
Bitcoin’s rise is mainly due to short-term geopolitical easing reducing risk aversion, combined with speculative inflows. It’s not because Bitcoin’s fundamentals have improved. Short-term capital flows are unstable; if the situation changes or news reverses, funds will exit quickly, and Bitcoin’s price will fall back.
Long-term, Bitcoin needs three core conditions for a true bull market:
① Clearing the halving cycle;
② Global macro liquidity easing;
③ Continuous institutional inflows.
Currently, none of these are met. Miners are still under pressure, and high global interest rates remain. A real bull market cannot be sustained now.
2. Two possible trajectories: Mostly a false alarm, small chance of further upward movement
(1) Fake-out (high probability):
This short-term easing is just a temporary window. Negotiation uncertainties and potential reversals are high. Bitcoin’s resistance at 72,700–73,000 has been tested multiple times without突破. Plus, miner selling pressure and high interest rates are unfavorable. Capital will likely push short positions and then exit, causing a correction.
Simple prediction: If Bitcoin cannot break 73,000 effectively, it will likely retrace to 67,000. If it falls below that, it may test 60,000, returning to a long-term bear market bottoming phase—this aligns with market logic.
(2) Continued upward (low probability):
To break higher, three conditions must be met:
- Parties reach a long-term stable agreement;
- Global liquidity loosens in advance;
- Large-scale institutional inflows occur.
Even if it突破73,000, targets would be around 75,000–78,000—just a short-term rebound. It won’t change the long-term bear cycle of 2026. Expect subsequent corrections; don’t hold unrealistic hopes.
3. Key reminder: No matter how lively the short-term market, the long-term trend remains unchanged.
Geopolitical news and hype are fleeting—like wind, they pass quickly. They cannot alter Bitcoin’s core logic over the next five years. Its future depends on the 4-year halving cycle, global compliance progress, and technological upgrades. Short-term geopolitics are just minor episodes, not big waves.
According to market laws, Bitcoin will bottom out in 2026 during the bear market. The bull run will start around 2027 with halving expectations and easing liquidity, and the main upward phase will come after the 2028 halving. This is a proven pattern that short-term volatility cannot overturn.

3. Core variables influencing Bitcoin’s future amid global market linkage
This short-term easing triggers global market reactions through capital flows and geopolitical uncertainties, indirectly affecting Bitcoin’s long-term development. But the main trend remains unchanged:
1. Capital flows: European markets celebrate, causing short-term diversion and long-term support for Bitcoin.
European stocks, banks, and energy markets surge, pulling funds out of crypto into traditional assets—normal capital movement.
In the long run, stable European markets will boost global risk appetite. European regulatory policies will accelerate Bitcoin’s compliance process. If top European banks like Deutsche Bank expand into crypto, it will bring sustained institutional inflows, supporting Bitcoin’s long-term growth.
Lower European natural gas prices will ease local mining costs temporarily, supporting network hash rate, but won’t change the industry’s long-term shift toward consolidation and oligopoly—an inevitable trend.
2. Geopolitical uncertainties: Short-term easing doesn’t mean long-term stability—risks remain.
Parties’ negotiation disagreements are hard to resolve quickly. The situation can reverse at any time. This uncertainty is the main risk for Bitcoin in the next 1–2 months: if tensions escalate again, Bitcoin may spike temporarily, but such gains are unsustainable and will likely retrace once tensions ease. Persistent volatility will increase Bitcoin’s price swings.
3. Long-term trend unchanged: Compliance, technology, and cycles determine Bitcoin’s future.
Ignoring short-term hype, Bitcoin’s long-term development depends on:
- The 4-year halving cycle, like seasons in agriculture; 2028’s halving is a key node, with 2027 as a golden window for institutional deployment.
- Global regulatory progress: Over 120 countries now regulate Bitcoin, with US spot ETFs attracting inflows, and European policies taking shape. Compliance will encourage more institutions to participate, transforming Bitcoin from niche speculation to mainstream asset.
- Technological upgrades: Bitcoin’s tech keeps evolving. Layer 2 and Lightning Network solve speed and fee issues, enabling small payments and cross-border transfers. It’s gradually becoming a practical tool, not just a “digital asset,” which sustains its long-term vitality.

4. Retail survival rules: In the midst of euphoria and uncertainty, protecting your capital is winning.
Market is full of short-term excitement and huge risks; Bitcoin’s rapid rise is tempting, but a long-term bear market is still in play. To survive, follow these four rules:
1. Completely abandon leverage; stay away from hype-driven trading (most important).
2. Recognize the market’s essence: short-term hype is not a bull market. Bitcoin’s rise now is hype-driven, not a true bull restart. A real bull needs three core supports, none of which are present now. The current surge is just “fireworks”—spectacular but fleeting. Don’t chase highs, don’t buy the dip blindly, don’t go all-in. Wait until 2026 when global liquidity eases or 2027’s halving heats up, then gradually deploy. Patience is key.
3. Respect uncertainty: short-term easing lasts only two weeks. Negotiations are uncertain, and reversals can happen anytime.
4. Focus on long-term opportunities: short-term news will pass, markets will normalize, but Bitcoin’s core logic remains intact.