Bitcoin Rebounds to US$74,500 — But Triple Divergence Signals the Rally Could End

Bitcoin
BTCUSD
is currently trading around US$74,500 after a sharp recovery from early April lows, but various technical signals across timeframes indicate this rally is starting to lose momentum in a resistance zone with historical significance.

This movement marks a recovery of more than 15% from the US$64,000 area touched in early April, reigniting hopes for a broader trend reversal. However, since prices are now squeezed between the upward channel top and a strong supply zone, bulls need to demonstrate confidence with a clear breakout—or risk ceding control back to the bears.

Upward Channel Meets Key Resistance

On the daily chart, Bitcoin has been moving within an ascending parallel channel since the February lows around US$62,000, gradually forming higher lows.

Currently, the price is approaching the upper boundary of the channel while testing the main resistance area between US$74,000 and US$76,000—levels that previously bounced the price in mid-March.

The combination of channel resistance and a horizontal supply zone makes this price area a critical decision point.

A clean daily close above US$76,000 would open the door to the next major resistance cluster around US$85,000–US$87,000. Below, key support areas are around US$64,000–US$66,000, aligning with the lower boundary of the channel.

Warning Signs of Bitcoin Momentum on the 4-Hour Chart

Looking at the 4-hour timeframe, the short-term structure remains technically bullish—BTC has been forming higher highs and higher lows since the March 27 lows.

The previous high at US$72,000 (green line) has now turned that area into support.

However, momentum tells a different story. Three consecutive higher highs have been printed, while the RSI shows a lower high (blue circle), forming a classic triple bearish divergence—an indication that buying pressure is weakening.

Volume has also been decreasing throughout the rally, confirming diminishing participation.

Additionally, the Bollinger Band Width Percentile (BBWP) has reached historically extreme levels, a condition often preceding volatility contraction and short-term price corrections.

BTC Price Forecast: Two Scenarios to Watch

Bullish scenario: A daily close above US$76,000 with increasing volume would indicate a valid breakout toward the US$85,000–US$87,000 resistance zone and invalidate the divergence.

Invalidation: Failure to hold above US$76,000 and a reversal back into consolidation.

Bearish scenario: Rejection at the current resistance zone could trigger a correction to US$72,000, and if US$72,000 fails to hold, a deeper retest to US$69,000–US$70,000 may occur.

Invalidation: Breakout and sustained close above US$76,000.

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