Fidelity: Bitcoin's Classic Four-Year Cycle May Be Coming to an End
Investors, Fidelity Digital Assets recently released an interesting research report.
They believe that Bitcoin's classic "boom-bust" cycle pattern may be becoming a thing of the past.
And the evidence is quite compelling.
At its October 2025 peak, Bitcoin's market cap reached approximately $2.5 trillion. However, in January 2026, something unusual happened—its annual realized volatility hit a new historic low for the 17th time.
This had never occurred so early after reaching an all-time high before.
In other words: Prices remained near highs, but market performance was calmer than ever before.
What changed?
The key point is that the demand structure has shifted.
Today, nearly 12% of Bitcoin's total supply is held by publicly traded companies and ETFs. And most of these purchases occurred after 2023.
Consider these facts:
— 49 publicly traded companies each hold more than 1,000 Bitcoin — The largest Bitcoin ETF reached $75 billion in assets under management in less than 2 years — By comparison, the gold ETF GLD took nearly 7 years to reach the same scale
This shows that institutional capital is entering this market faster than any emerging asset class in history.
Now let's look at on-chain data.
In this cycle, the Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) ratio has remained at approximately 2x the realized value level.
By comparison:
2013 — approximately 6x 2017 — approximately 4x 2021 — approximately 4x
If this cycle's MVRV reaches at least 4x, that would mean:
— Market cap reaching approximately $4.5 trillion — Bitcoin price at approximately $225,000
But there's another interesting metric worth paying attention to.
Fidelity introduced a new indicator: the profit volatility ratio.
It measures the ratio between market profits and their volatility.
And surprisingly:
Since late 2023, this indicator has remained stable above 0.015, the longest sustained stable period in Bitcoin's history.
Even when price dropped below $70,000 in February 2026, it failed to break this structure.
What might this mean?
Perhaps we're witnessing Bitcoin's transition from a "speculative asset" phase to a "macro asset" phase.
If that's the case, the market landscape could change:
— No more 80% crashes — No more extreme euphoric peaks — More gradual and stable growth instead
But here's one thing to remember.
Market evolution is rarely linear. Usually, they first break most people's expectations before forming new structures.
Therefore, I tend to view these findings as a possibility, a potential future scenario for the market, rather than a definite prediction.
So, investors, what do you think?
Is Bitcoin still following the old four-year cycle pattern, or are we gradually entering a completely new market stage?
If interested, I can dive deeper into what this means for the next bear market and our investment strategies. Please give it a thumbs up for feedback.
Fidelity: Bitcoin's Classic Four-Year Cycle May Be Coming to an End
Investors, Fidelity Digital Assets recently released an interesting research report.
They believe that Bitcoin's classic "boom-bust" cycle pattern may be becoming a thing of the past.
And the evidence is quite compelling.
At its October 2025 peak, Bitcoin's market cap reached approximately $2.5 trillion.
However, in January 2026, something unusual happened—its annual realized volatility hit a new historic low for the 17th time.
This had never occurred so early after reaching an all-time high before.
In other words:
Prices remained near highs, but market performance was calmer than ever before.
What changed?
The key point is that the demand structure has shifted.
Today, nearly 12% of Bitcoin's total supply is held by publicly traded companies and ETFs.
And most of these purchases occurred after 2023.
Consider these facts:
— 49 publicly traded companies each hold more than 1,000 Bitcoin
— The largest Bitcoin ETF reached $75 billion in assets under management in less than 2 years
— By comparison, the gold ETF GLD took nearly 7 years to reach the same scale
This shows that institutional capital is entering this market faster than any emerging asset class in history.
Now let's look at on-chain data.
In this cycle, the Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) ratio has remained at approximately 2x the realized value level.
By comparison:
2013 — approximately 6x
2017 — approximately 4x
2021 — approximately 4x
If this cycle's MVRV reaches at least 4x, that would mean:
— Market cap reaching approximately $4.5 trillion
— Bitcoin price at approximately $225,000
But there's another interesting metric worth paying attention to.
Fidelity introduced a new indicator: the profit volatility ratio.
It measures the ratio between market profits and their volatility.
And surprisingly:
Since late 2023, this indicator has remained stable above 0.015, the longest sustained stable period in Bitcoin's history.
Even when price dropped below $70,000 in February 2026, it failed to break this structure.
What might this mean?
Perhaps we're witnessing Bitcoin's transition from a "speculative asset" phase to a "macro asset" phase.
If that's the case, the market landscape could change:
— No more 80% crashes
— No more extreme euphoric peaks
— More gradual and stable growth instead
But here's one thing to remember.
Market evolution is rarely linear.
Usually, they first break most people's expectations before forming new structures.
Therefore, I tend to view these findings as a possibility, a potential future scenario for the market, rather than a definite prediction.
So, investors, what do you think?
Is Bitcoin still following the old four-year cycle pattern,
or are we gradually entering a completely new market stage?
If interested, I can dive deeper into what this means for the next bear market and our investment strategies. Please give it a thumbs up for feedback.