📌According to CME FedWatch data, traders have abandoned expectations for a rate cut in April, with the probability of maintaining rates unchanged at 92.8%.
Besides the US, central banks of several other major economies that were prepared to gradually cut rates are now all turning hawkish—— 📍 Bank of England unanimously passed maintaining the base rate unchanged, with the market pricing in two rate hikes of 25 basis points each within the year. 📍 Europe is more sensitive to energy price shocks, with the market betting on at least one rate hike within the year. 📍 Reserve Bank of Australia+ has already raised rates, with the market betting on another 65 basis points increase within the year. 📍 South Korea and India, with the market betting on four rate hikes each over the next two years. A war has overturned global monetary policy entirely, with the pricing of all assets swinging back and forth between two completely opposite scenarios of "stagflation" and "ceasefire." In such an environment, the most dangerous operation is betting on a single direction; Never arrogantly engage in reckless operations; keeping your hands off is the best strategy!
📌According to CME FedWatch data, traders have abandoned expectations for a rate cut in April, with the probability of maintaining rates unchanged at 92.8%.
Besides the US, central banks of several other major economies that were prepared to gradually cut rates are now all turning hawkish——
📍 Bank of England unanimously passed maintaining the base rate unchanged, with the market pricing in two rate hikes of 25 basis points each within the year.
📍 Europe is more sensitive to energy price shocks, with the market betting on at least one rate hike within the year.
📍 Reserve Bank of Australia+ has already raised rates, with the market betting on another 65 basis points increase within the year.
📍 South Korea and India, with the market betting on four rate hikes each over the next two years.
A war has overturned global monetary policy entirely, with the pricing of all assets swinging back and forth between two completely opposite scenarios of "stagflation" and "ceasefire."
In such an environment, the most dangerous operation is betting on a single direction;
Never arrogantly engage in reckless operations; keeping your hands off is the best strategy!