1. 76000 probably isn't the top of this rebound wave, but my psychological price targets have already been adjusted down by around 3000 points compared to a month ago. 2. Discussing tops and bottoms is actually not very meaningful; discussing ranges is more meaningful. For example, above 77000 is the top range of this rebound, and similarly, below 59000 is the bottom range of the next decline. 3. Value investing combined with fundamentals and macro factors always beats speculative trading based solely on technicals and liquidity. The essence here is that the two have different entry barriers. 4. It's not very meaningful to discuss the bear market bottom right now, even though we're quite clear the bottom range should be in the 37000-49000 zone. 5. If we're looking for a bottom now, it's the bottom of the first half of the year, which should be in the 52000-56000 range. What's fairly certain is the first half shouldn't drop below 49000 (the low from August 5, 2024). 6. This bear market moved too fast, which is why many people didn't react to the late January-early February decline. Currently, the probability of this bear market producing 7 weekly-level structures is increasing. Based on this analysis, after exiting the current long positions, there should be three more trades possible within the year. For reference, the 2018 bear market only produced 3 structures, while the 2022 bear market produced 5 structures. In other words, cryptocurrency's current structure is becoming increasingly complex, which means retail traders can't profit even if they understand cycles. The reason I reached this conclusion earlier is that the 2019-2021 bull market only produced 5 weekly-level structures; while the 2023-2025 bull market produced 7 weekly-level structures. If we extrapolate based on an average of 4 months per weekly-level structure (3 months up, 5 months down), the next bull market has a probability of producing 9 weekly-level structures. #创作者冲榜
Recent Thoughts
1. 76000 probably isn't the top of this rebound wave, but my psychological price targets have already been adjusted down by around 3000 points compared to a month ago.
2. Discussing tops and bottoms is actually not very meaningful; discussing ranges is more meaningful. For example, above 77000 is the top range of this rebound, and similarly, below 59000 is the bottom range of the next decline.
3. Value investing combined with fundamentals and macro factors always beats speculative trading based solely on technicals and liquidity. The essence here is that the two have different entry barriers.
4. It's not very meaningful to discuss the bear market bottom right now, even though we're quite clear the bottom range should be in the 37000-49000 zone.
5. If we're looking for a bottom now, it's the bottom of the first half of the year, which should be in the 52000-56000 range. What's fairly certain is the first half shouldn't drop below 49000 (the low from August 5, 2024).
6. This bear market moved too fast, which is why many people didn't react to the late January-early February decline. Currently, the probability of this bear market producing 7 weekly-level structures is increasing. Based on this analysis, after exiting the current long positions, there should be three more trades possible within the year.
For reference, the 2018 bear market only produced 3 structures, while the 2022 bear market produced 5 structures. In other words, cryptocurrency's current structure is becoming increasingly complex, which means retail traders can't profit even if they understand cycles.
The reason I reached this conclusion earlier is that the 2019-2021 bull market only produced 5 weekly-level structures; while the 2023-2025 bull market produced 7 weekly-level structures.
If we extrapolate based on an average of 4 months per weekly-level structure (3 months up, 5 months down), the next bull market has a probability of producing 9 weekly-level structures.
#创作者冲榜