This perspective is possibly one of the more objective assessments of crypto recently‼️
Bitcoin has been above $70,000 for 6 consecutive days.
Before the war broke out, it was still in the low $60,000s.
And over these two weeks, oil prices have risen nearly 50% — this is a typical environment where risk assets come under pressure.
Yet bitcoin is rising, completely contrary to everyone's intuition.
Why?
First, the market is "learning."
In the early stages of the conflict, every piece of news triggered reflex-like massive sell-offs.
But after this pattern repeated too many times, traders have started to adapt.
The current market rhythm is basically:
Escalation of conflict → Oil prices soar → Bitcoin drops slightly → Then rapidly rebounds.
This scenario has played out seven or eight times back and forth.
Market participants are already familiar with this rhythm, and many funds are quietly accumulating in the midst of these fluctuations.
Second, on-chain data is changing.
Internal data shows:
• The number of wallets holding at least 100 BTC has hit a new all-time high
• The count has broken through 20,000
Meanwhile:
• Bitcoin reserves on centralized exchanges
have fallen to the lowest level since 2020
In other words:
Bitcoin is leaving exchanges and entering cold wallets.
This means:
Large holders are accumulating coins.
Third, institutional capital continues to buy in.
Bitcoin ETFs have seen net inflows for multiple consecutive days.
Among them:
BlackRock's ETF — iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) continues to lead.
Institutional buying pressure →
Market supply continues to tighten →
Chips continuously accumulate.
This is the underlying logic why bitcoin's price keeps failing to drop.
Fourth, the derivatives market is playing games.
Currently, bitcoin's biggest resistance zone is:
$72,000 — $74,000
Many whales have placed massive sell orders in this zone.
The logic is simple:
Wait for retail to rush in and take over, then turn around and short.
The market has already seen:
• A $6.5 million 20x leveraged short position
• Approximately $70 million in short positions
Sounds scary.
But these shorts are actually quite risky too.
Because leverage in the market is accumulating again.
Current open interest has returned to:
88,000 BTC
Just a slight price break of key levels
could trigger a chain reaction liquidation.
In the past 24 hours:
The entire crypto market has already liquidated nearly $200 million.
And there's one very interesting phenomenon:
Plenty of short liquidations, but also plenty of long liquidations.
What does this mean?
The market is entering a typical long-short hedging cycle.
Above:
Is the whale short wall
Below:
Is institutional ETF buying
Price is squeezed in the middle.
Bitcoin right now is like a spring pulled very tight.
Once the direction breaks through,
the volatility will be extremely intense.
If it breaks above $74,000:
• First target $75,000
• Second target $78,000
• In extreme cases directly challenge $80,000
But if it breaks below $70,000:
The market will likely refill liquidity:
• $69,000
• Even $65,000
Bitcoin is now standing at the critical point.
Whether it can take off
depends on—
whether that $74,000 wall
has been breached.
