One Year After Bitcoin's Latest Halving: Why This Cycle Looks Very Different

Bitcoin has now gone a year since the last halving and this cycle is shaping up to be unlike any previous cycle. Unlike previous cycles, where explosive bullish runs occurred after halving, BTC has experienced a much more modest increase, rising only 31%, compared to a 436% increase during the same timeframe of the previous cycle. At the same time, metrics of long-term holders such as the MVRV ratio are signaling a significant decline in unrealized profits, indicating a maturing market with growth being suppressed. Together, these changes suggest that Bitcoin may be entering a new era, defined less by parabolic peaks and more by gradual growth driven by institutions. One Year After Bitcoin’s Latest Halving This Bitcoin cycle is significantly different from previous cycles, signaling a potential shift in how the market reacts to halving events. In previous cycles—most notably from 2012 to 2016 and again from 2016 to 2020—Bitcoin tended to experience a strong bullish trend during this period. The period after halving is typically marked by strong bullish momentum and parabolic price action, primarily driven by retail enthusiasm and speculative demand. However, the current cycle has taken a different path. Instead of accelerating after the halving, the bullish phase began earlier, in October and December 2024, followed by consolidation in January 2025 and a correction at the end of February. This behavior is markedly different from historical patterns where halving often served as a catalyst for significant bullish rallies. There are several factors contributing to this change: Bitcoin is no longer just a speculative asset driven by retail — it is increasingly seen as a maturing financial instrument. The increasing participation of institutional investors, along with macroeconomic pressures and structural changes in the market, has led to a more considered and complex response.

Another clear sign of this evolution is the weakening strength of each successive cycle. The explosive gains of the early years have become harder to replicate as Bitcoin’s market capitalization has increased. For example, in the 2020–2024 cycle, Bitcoin increased by 436% one year after the halving. In contrast, this cycle saw a much more modest gain of 31% in the same timeframe.

This change could mean that Bitcoin is entering a new chapter. A chapter with less volatility and more stable, long-term growth. The halving may no longer be the main driving force. Other forces are taking over—interest rates, liquidity, and institutional money. The game is changing. And so is the way Bitcoin moves. However, it is important to note that previous cycles also had consolidation and correction phases before continuing the bullish trend. Although this phase may be slower or less exciting, it can still represent a healthy reset before the next move higher. However, there is still a possibility that this cycle will continue to deviate from historical patterns. Instead of a strong breakout peak, the outcome could be a longer bullish trend supported structurally—less driven by hype, more by fundamental factors. Long-Term MVRV Holders Reveal Insights About the Maturing Bitcoin Market The MVRV ratio of long-term holders (LTH) has always been a reliable measure of unrealized profits. It indicates the amount that long-term investors are holding before they start selling. However, over time, this number is gradually decreasing. In the cycle of 2016–2020, LTH MVRV peaked at 35.8. This indicated huge paper profits and a clear peak was forming. By the cycle of 2020–2024, the peak dropped sharply to 12.2. This occurred even as the price of Bitcoin reached a new all-time high. In the current cycle, the LTH MVRV high so far is only 4.35. This is a significant drop. This indicates that long-term holders are not seeing the same type of profit. The trend is very clear: each cycle brings a smaller multiple. The Bitcoin boom is slowing down. The market is maturing. Now, in the current cycle, the highest LTH MVRV index to date is 4.35. This sharp decline indicates that long-term holders are experiencing a much lower multiple on their holdings compared to previous cycles, even as prices have increased significantly. This pattern suggests one conclusion: Bitcoin’s bullish trend is being constrained.

This is not just a matter of chance. As the market matures, the naturally explosive profits become harder to achieve. The days of extreme profit multiples in cycles may be fading, replaced by more moderate growth—but potentially more stable. A market capitalization increase means that more capital is needed exponentially to make a significant price change. However, this is not conclusive evidence that this cycle has peaked. Previous cycles often included extended periods of sideways movement or modest pullbacks before reaching new highs. With larger organizations playing a bigger role, accumulation phases may last longer. As a result, peak profit-taking may be less abrupt compared to previous cycles. However, if the downtrend in MVRV continues, this could reinforce the idea that Bitcoin is transitioning from a cyclical spike to a more structured, slow growth model. The strongest gains may be behind us, especially for those who participated in the final stages of the cycle.