Bridgewater's Ray Dalio: Taiwan is a long-term structural issue and will not become a trigger point for US-China conflict in the short term.

Ray Dalio, founder of Bridgewater Associates, was recently invited to speak and engage in a dialogue at the Oxford Union in the UK, with a focus on global order changes, debt cycles, the rise and fall of great powers, and technological impact. When discussing US-China relations, the moderator brought up one of the most concerning issues: Taiwan. In his response, Dalio refrained from making emotional comments and instead drew on his long-term research on historical cycles and Chinese political culture to explain Taiwan’s position in China’s perspective and assess whether Taiwan is currently a flashpoint for potential military conflict between the US and China.

Background of Engagement with China: Understanding China Before Taiwan

Dalio recalled his first trip to China in the mid-1980s, describing how his initial curiosity gave way to deeper understanding through exchanges with local leaders and historians, enabling him to grasp China’s worldview. He emphasized that to understand how China views Taiwan today, one must first be familiar with its political culture and historical context.

The Nation as a Top-Down Family: The Taiwan Issue Has Long Existed in China’s Mind

Quoting Chinese leaders and scholars, he pointed out that the traditional concept of “nation” in China carries the dual meaning of “country” and “family,” meaning the state is seen as a large family, maintaining order and harmony from the top down.

By contrast, the West emphasizes individualism and bottom-up power, resulting in vastly different approaches to sovereignty, order, and authority. After discussing China’s view of history and governance, Dalio turned to Taiwan, noting that Taiwan has been part of China’s narrative for a very long time—not merely a recent political issue, but deeply rooted in China’s history and consciousness.

Clear “One China” Stance That Has Remained Unchanged Since WWII

When asked whether the US and China might go to war over Taiwan, Dalio stated plainly that the Chinese government has absolutely no doubt that “Taiwan is part of China.” He noted that since the end of World War II, China has consistently emphasized this position, including Taiwan’s belonging to China and adherence to the “One China” policy—views that are taken for granted within China and are never denied.

Low Probability of Short-Term Conflict: Taiwan as a Long-Term Evolving Issue

Dalio further stated that he views Taiwan as an issue that will “evolve over time,” rather than an immediate trigger for full-scale conflict.

He emphasized that, based on current conditions, he does not believe Taiwan will be the real focal point for US-China military conflict at this moment. This reflects Dalio’s observations based on historical cycles and the present situation, rather than emotional predictions.

The Battlefield Shifts to Technology and Finance: Taiwan Is Highly Sensitive but Not an Immediate Flashpoint

Dalio noted that US-China relations have entered a new, multi-track form of competition, including trade, technology, and finance—nontraditional battlefields—with Taiwan situated within this broader framework of geopolitical rivalry.

He believes the two major powers are moving toward greater self-sufficiency to reduce dependence and avoid being constrained by each other. In this environment, Taiwan remains a position of high concern, but he does not view it as a flashpoint for inevitable conflict in the short term. Rather, it is a long-term issue at the intersection of historical narrative and modern competition.

This article, “Bridgewater’s Ray Dalio: Taiwan Is a Long-Term Structural Issue, Will Not Be the Trigger for US-China Conflict in the Short Term,” first appeared on Chain News ABMedia.