Those of you who have been watching the market lately may have noticed that gold's trend is a bit subtle.

Yesterday, it closed with a small bearish candlestick with a long upper shadow, which looks like it's about to pull back, but there hasn't been a real breakdown. The price is still hovering between the middle and upper bands of the daily Bollinger Bands—a typical high-level sideways consolidation. To put it simply, it's just waiting to break through the previous highs or lows, and then the direction will become clear.

On the fundamentals side, the November ADP private employment data dropped sharply, hitting a two-and-a-half-year low. A closer look at the data shows that mainly small businesses are laying off workers, but official statistics indicate that the overall scale of layoffs isn't that big. Moreover, the ADP data has always differed from the Labor Department's numbers, and the industry consensus is: don't take it too seriously.

At the same time, the ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI came in at 52.6, almost unchanged from last month's 52.4. The service sector is still stable, GDP isn't collapsing, and inflation remains within the current range.

Now the market is waiting for the Fed to cut rates in December, and this is basically a done deal—it's already mostly priced in. But there's a variable: the Fed chair is up for reappointment. So, we're likely to see a combination move—a rate cut (a dovish action), but the meeting statement will likely highlight risks (hawkish wording).

From an asset pricing perspective, gold's current price has already priced in some of the rate cut expectations. A short-term pullback? Just a technical adjustment, a routine move before the trend kicks off. Once the rate cut actually happens, and considering that central banks around the world have been hoarding gold in recent years, there's a good chance gold will break out of its current consolidation range and move higher.