#美国经济与金融市场分析 Market expectations for Federal Reserve policy are undergoing significant changes. JPMorgan's latest forecast predicts that rate cuts will begin in December, which is a stark reversal from its assessment just a week ago. Meanwhile, the US dollar is experiencing its largest weekly drop since July. These signals indicate that the market's outlook on the US economic prospects is shifting.

From the data perspective, core PCE for September is expected to rise by 0.22%, similar to core CPI. If it comes in below this level, the 12-month year-over-year inflation rate could drop from 2.9% to 2.8%. On the other hand, initial jobless claims last week unexpectedly fell to 216,000, the lowest since mid-April.

These data reflect the complexity of the current economic situation. While inflationary pressures have eased somewhat, they still persist, and the labor market remains relatively strong. The Fed faces a dilemma in rate cut decisions: it needs to address the risk of economic slowdown while remaining vigilant against an inflation rebound.

At present, the market is pricing in a more accommodative monetary policy. However, given the contradictory data, there is still uncertainty surrounding the Fed's December decision. Going forward, close attention must be paid to inflation data and employment reports, as these will be the key factors influencing policy direction.