#数字资产行情上升 The USD/JPY remains stuck around 156, with both bulls and bears heavily invested at this level. Frankly, the next market direction depends on whether it can break through here.

The interesting points in the current situation are as follows:

Recently, the Bank of Japan has signaled a hawkish stance, causing Japanese government bond yields to jump, which provides real support for the yen. However, on the other hand, domestic fiscal expansion pressures and energy import costs still exist in Japan, severely constraining the BOJ's room to raise interest rates, and the policy outlook remains uncertain. These two forces are pulling in opposite directions.

The most critical variable remains the Federal Reserve. The market is now convinced that the Fed will cut interest rates, but the dollar itself lacks strong momentum to rebound. With non-farm payroll data about to be released, this report could be the tipping point — either confirming weak employment and expectations of rate cuts, causing the dollar to plunge, or showing stronger-than-expected employment, leading to a sharp decline in the yen.

From a technical perspective, the exchange rate is being held between the upper and lower bounds of an ascending channel, with all moving averages flat and RSI lacking momentum. It’s like a stretched string, ready to be released with just one signal.

The tug-of-war over global capital flows ultimately depends on this non-farm payroll report to set the tone.