Jamesvanst

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Jamesvanst

18h ago

Last week's price action was fascinating.
IBIT and IGV were correlated on Monday, but by Tuesday they lost complete correlation for the rest of the week.
As the week progressed, IBIT continued to appreciate while everything else sold off.
Something to keep an eye on.

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Jamesvanst

03-15 06:25

Saylor will be announcing a top 5 bitcoin purchase on Monday, which was achieved in a bear market.
>22,305 BTC
For third place, its greater than 29,647 BTC

BTC2,73%

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Jamesvanst

03-14 18:27

The two main indicators for Bitcoin here are the realized price ($54,380) and the 200WMA ($58,786).
The realized price crossed below the 200WMA back in December, and it has now been three months.
This signals deep market capitulation, which has historically appeared near major bear market bottoms.
In 2022, the crossover first appeared in June, and Bitcoin fell straight through both the realized price and the 200WMA. This time, it used the 200WMA as support.
In bear markets, Bitcoin has more often used the 200WMA as support, as seen in 2015 and 2019, and it only briefly went below it during COV

BTC2,73%

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Jamesvanst

03-13 18:27

Un autre jour de surperformance du Bitcoin, même sans l'$STRC bid.
Les obligations continuent d'être de l'argent mort.

BTC2,73%

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Jamesvanst

03-13 13:17

If you think that the Bitcoin/gold ratio has bottomed, with a 70% drawdown this cycle vs 76% in 2022.
Then we aren't in May/June 2022, as that ratio bottomed in November 2022.
To me, it looks more like February 2019.

BTC2,73%

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Jamesvanst

03-13 08:11

Since the war started, Bitcoin has dropped 3% on both Fridays, with maximum fear heading into the weekend.
Let’s see if the trend changes today.

BTC2,73%

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Jamesvanst

03-12 20:53

MSTR raised $285M today via $STRC and it cost them $33M in dividend obligations.

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Jamesvanst

03-12 20:09

Two completely different closes
$Q $IBIT

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Jamesvanst

03-12 17:40

Tomorrow, for the ex-div date, we will see how strong the demand for $STRC really is.

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Jamesvanst

03-12 15:59

Bitcoin is trading independently at the moment, with no obvious 1:1 correlation to any major index.

BTC2,73%

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Jamesvanst

03-12 14:39

If you're stress testing a double-digit yield product, there is no better time than in a bear market.
Throw on top: oil above $100, Treasury yields climbing, the DXY about to break 100, and risk assets getting whacked.

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Jamesvanst

03-12 10:44

Sentiment
Peak fear
Funding rates negative, longest stretch since 2025
VIX hits 1-year high
PTSD from the 2022 bear market
STRC/MSTR liquidation concerns
Oil above $90
US 10-year at 4.22%
Private credit contagion
Price
Bitcoin is at $70k.

BTC2,73%

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Jamesvanst

03-11 22:56

Saylor knows that in two years Bitcoin will most likely be north of $150k, and these price levels will become unlikely to revisit again.
Then the game is over.
All Strategy has to do is stay solvent, and they already have 24 months of dividend coverage and have proven to the market they can raise a billion in a depressed market (yes, we’re in a bear market).
Even the first convertible note is still trading at a premium to par, even as the stock has declined 85%.
The company’s raising $500M a week to pay a $50M dividend obligation. So does he care they are overpaying a dividend by 1-2%.

BTC2,73%

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Jamesvanst

03-11 22:45

BTC2,73%

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Jamesvanst

03-11 18:32

Google, a $4T company, generates about $350M in net profit per day.
Strategy, a $50B company, is raising roughly $100M per day via its ATM.
Not an apples-to-apples comparison, but it shows the sheer scale of money being raised for MSTR.

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Jamesvanst

03-10 20:33

If STRC continues at this rate, the entire cycle trajectory changes. Period.

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Jamesvanst

03-10 19:05

MSTR's drawdown against Bitcoin hit the same level as in the last cycle, 44%.

BTC2,73%

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Jamesvanst

03-10 14:48

Five months ago exactly was 10/10.
Since then, the industry has seen only one blow-up.
Everyone is waiting for the next shoe to drop and the FTX moment.
FTX was six months after the Luna collapse...
On my timeline we have one more month to go.

LUNA2,12%

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Jamesvanst

03-10 12:00

If $60k was the bottom and with the minimal institutional allocation deployed into Bitcoin so far.
That allocation has capped further downside risk by about 15–20%. Assuming a full 2026 retail cycle would add around 70%.
MSTR saw an 81% drawdown this cycle, compared to 85% in 2022. Which would tell me that stock has bottomed, and sentiment is starting to turn.

BTC2,73%