RawlalGaib

Looking at how TLT is behaving—going down while yields are going up—this suggests there are still inflation concerns and that rates remain elevated. Most of the time, this does not signal an immediate recession, rather it points to a delayed recession.
Right now, we are essentially in the process of a soft landing versus a recession. However, even if uncertainty fades, inflation declines further, and we eventually get rate cuts and recession could still be inevitable, whether it happens now or later the risk doesn’t disappear—it may simply be delayed.
The scenario I currently lean toward is th

haven’t seen the S&P opening red on a monday for a while, pretty much critical times tonight and tomorrow

A few days before the war started, I was closely watching the US10Y because it felt like something was about to happen. The bullish case would have been for yields to drop below 4% and stay there, giving risk assets a small window to outperform. But since 4% has been a key level for years, they had to manufacture a narrative to delay everything and Instead we bounced from 4% to 4.3–4.4%.
Last year, with tariffs, the same shenanigans happened. To delay things, they pushed a narrative while yields were sitting at 4%, followed by tariffs that drove yields up to 4.6%, still respecting a macro down

small theory I had which I think I've discussed before but can't find to retweet, is about this wallet on hyperliquid, it opened a short position shortly after Trump took office early last year, and it's still running to this day, the only reason I follow it is that this short position was worth more than $50 million and tt wasn't even closed when ETH hit a new all time high last summer, which to me means that this is likely an insider wallet that knew the price would drop again.
Since December the margin of the position has been decreasing because they are closing parts of the short nearly ev

SMCI will soon offer one of the best entries you can get on this asset around 12–9, obviously they are now pushing this FUD narrative to drive the price lower so market makers can load as much as they can before demand skyrockets again going even past the previous ATH

for some reason I’ve seen plenty of Bitcoin pattern charts recently highlighting the same bear flag we had from December to January, but what they don’t realize is that liquidity doesn’t always need to be taken out if there are enough short positions with liquidity to the upside, and looking at the funding rate we’re kind of flipping so this wedge pattern can easily break to the upside humbling all the clankers by pushing straight up to January levels

Another Thursday in the markets another sell off right after FOMC, but I wouldn’t be too scared because we already knew this will happen, with the SPX making new lower lows and lower highs until the market finds another break of structure, so stocks were a no touch for me and they still are.
On crypto ETH reached 2,400 one of my LTF targets from which we saw a correction back to around 2,100 the level we initially broke out from, bitcoin is slightly weaker than ETH i feel like, and as long as we are under 70,500–70,800 sellers are in control and we can revisit lower levels, especially given th

A small observation about the Fed cuts and CPI: inflation data came in lower after the bear market in 2022 followed by a bull market that is still ongoing today, after inflation dropped sharply again the Fed started cutting rates for the first time around August 2024 through December 2024, since then the trend in inflation has continued to move lower printing lower lows and lower highs.
A new low was reached in April when Trump pushed the tariffs narrative, which I believe was intended to create market panic and delay Fed decisions & stimulate consumers. At each FOMC conference the Fed kept re