#DecemberMarketOutlook
ℹ️The People's Bank of China (PBOC), at its Party Committee meeting, reaffirmed its course on:
1. Moderately easing monetary policy: readiness to use reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate adjustments to maintain liquidity, stimulate growth, and manage inflation.
2. Internationalization of the yuan: actively developing the cross-border payment system in yuan and the sustainable development of digital yuan (e-CNY) within the framework of increasing financial sector openness.
ℹ️Analysis of the impact on the crypto market:
1. Direct impact: creating a macroeconomic background
· Increasing global liquidity: The PBOC's easing policy adds liquidity to one of the world's largest economies. Part of these funds, as historically occurred, may indirectly (through various channels) seek higher yields in global markets, including crypto assets as a class of risk assets. This is an indirect positive factor for market capitalization growth.
· Inflation expectations: The explicit goal—"reasonable price increases"—signals tolerable moderate inflation. In the long term, this reinforces the narrative of crypto assets (especially Bitcoin) as a hedge against inflation and fiat currency devaluation, although the direct correlation is complex.
2. Key focus: digital yuan (e-CNY) and internationalization
· Competition or adaptation? The sustainable development of e-CNY does not directly support decentralized cryptocurrencies. It enhances a sovereign digital asset (CBDC). This:
· Acts as a competitor to stablecoins and payment cryptocurrencies in the digital payments segment.
· Drives technological adaptation: mass adoption of e-CNY will accelerate familiarity among the public and businesses with digital wallets and blockchain-like technologies, potentially lowering barriers for subsequent adoption of other digital assets.
· Control tool: CBDC provides the government with an unprecedented instrument to control monetary flow, contrasting with the philosophy of decentralized cryptocurrencies.
· Yuan internationalization: Creating a multi-channel cross-border payment system in yuan challenges the dominance of the dollar and systems like SWIFT. If successful, this could reshape the global currency architecture and create new corridors for digital assets, primarily for government-issued digital currencies.
3. Regulatory context: "ensuring national financial security"
· All initiatives are under the prism of control and security. The PBOC will strictly separate the development of its digital yuan from "speculative" decentralized cryptocurrencies.
· This means that within China, a strict ban on trading and mining cryptocurrencies (except for NFTs and blockchain services in approved zones) is likely to persist. China will promote its digital currency while restricting competitors.
ℹ️Summary conclusions:
1. Macro-effect is positive: Additional liquidity and inflationary policies of major central banks (including the Fed, ECB, and now PBOC) create a favorable environment for hard assets with limited issuance, such as Bitcoin, in the long run.
2. Development of e-CNY is a double-edged sword for the crypto market:
· Short-term: Strengthening the state-controlled digital competitor, maintaining strict regulation in China.
· Long-term: Legitimizing digital assets as a class, technological education, and potentially creating new infrastructural bridges between traditional finance (in yuan) and the decentralized world.
3. Main signal: The world is moving towards digitization of money. China is betting on a centralized, state-controlled model. The crypto market offers an alternative, decentralized model. The PBOC's policy confirms this trend but increases competition between these two paradigms.
What does this mean for investors?
Don’t expect the Chinese market to open immediately. Keep an eye on e-CNY as an indicator of the speed of digitalization and a potential future "gateway," while primarily focusing on global liquidity, which, according to the PBOC’s statement, will remain high. This is the foundation for a long-term bullish trend in the market.

With almost all leading assets trading in a range, analysts emphasize that Jerome Powell’s tone, not the rate cut itself, is likely to determine the market’s next true trend.
In recent days, Bitcoin has been moving between $88,000 and $93,000, while liquidity is decreasing toward the end of the year. Ethereum is holding around $3,100, BNB is near $886, and Solana is around $132. The total crypto market capitalization is declining toward $3.1 trillion during this period of waiting.
ETF flows indicate rotation into altcoins
Despite calm price dynamics, exchange-traded funds reveal a more detailed picture. Bitcoin ETF products reported about $60 million in outflows on Monday, while ETH, SOL, and XRP funds attracted a combined $74 million in net inflows.
Markets remain stagnant ahead of the Fed’s “binary” week
Analysts describe the sentiment as a market waiting for permission to move. Most traders are staying on the sidelines ahead of tomorrow’s FOMC meeting, where a December rate cut is considered the base scenario.
Some experts believe the cut is already fully priced in. However, Powell’s guidance will be far more important—especially whether 2026 policy will remain tighter or shift to a more dovish stance.
In their opinion, Bitcoin will likely remain locked around $91,000 immediately after the announcement unless Powell surprises the markets.
Liquidity evaporates as derivatives traders step back
QCP Capital notes that the sharp weekend moves—BTC from $88,000 to $92,000 and ETH from $2,910 to $3,150—highlight how shallow liquidity has become toward year-end.
Open interest plunges:
- Bitcoin open interest is down more than 44% since October
- Ethereum open interest has fallen by over 50%
Retail trader participation is also dropping sharply, with Google search interest returning to the lowest levels seen during the bear market.
Nevertheless, long-term buyers continue to quietly absorb supply. Around 25,000 BTC have left centralized exchanges over the past two weeks, and ETF + corporate balances now exceed exchange holdings, strengthening the structural supply shortage. Still, without a macro catalyst, this steady absorption isn’t enough to push the price out of the range.
Powell’s speech will determine Bitcoin’s next move
Analysts are unanimous that tomorrow’s guidance will set the tone for the market in the final weeks of 2025. A more cautious or “hawkish” message may push Bitcoin back to the $88,000 zone.
A more dovish outlook or a hint of further cuts in early 2026 could trigger a move toward $93,000–$95,000, with the potential to test $97,000–$106,000 if momentum returns. Until then, the dominant strategy remains waiting.
The market is stagnant—the next move depends entirely on Powell’s words.

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CryptoQuant reported a spike in XRP’s velocity metric to 0.0324 on December 2—a sign that tokens are circulating quickly rather than sitting in long-term wallets. Although the asset’s price has declined in recent weeks, network activity is ramping up rather than slowing down.
The heightened movement suggests a shift in participant behavior. Wallet data shows both everyday users and large holders are restructuring their positions during this market phase. Rather than withdrawing from the ecosystem, many appear to be actively using XRP for settlements, automated transfers, and strategic reallocations. Increased token flows between addresses typically signal more liquid conditions and a market that reacts more quickly to short-term signals.
Throughout 2025, the XRP Ledger remains busy, and the December spike fits into a pattern of increased usage. However, the recent surge stands out because it comes during a price correction. After peaking at around $3.50 in August, XRP was trading near $2.17 at the start of December. Historically, periods of mixed sentiment—especially during downward trends—often lead to higher circulation as traders adjust their exposure.
Despite price pressure, the steady rise in velocity suggests the network’s fundamental role remains intact. Transaction volumes remain high, and the ledger continues to process fast and frequent transfers. Analysts note that strong activity during price declines is often a sign of deep structural resilience. In many previous cycles, sustained network participation appeared before price momentum began to recover.
For now, the picture in the XRP ecosystem is clear: even in a cooling market, activity “under the hood” remains strong. And in crypto, high usage often speaks louder than short-term price moves.