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Currently, BTC and ETH haven't accelerated their decline nor increased volume, so this wave hasn't bottomed out yet. It's a slow grind. The key levels are 693 (most likely won't hold), 639–668 (hopeful), 610, 581, and other critical points.

Last week, the market was hit by multiple negative news, severely damaging investor confidence. Among them, Microsoft's earnings report was disappointing, raising concerns about the outlook for AI spending. The company's reported revenue growth for Azure cloud computing business was only slightly above expectations, causing its stock price to plummet by 10%.
At the same time, the market expects Powell to push for rate cuts while also shifting towards tightening the balance sheet policy, which is seen as more hawkish.
The news that Powell was nominated by Trump triggered a sharp drop in gol

Bitcoin's attempt to stabilize as demand for put options used to hedge downside risk has eased somewhat, but the concentration of open interest at specific strike prices indicates that market tension has not fully dissipated. According to Deribit data, the highest concentration of put options shows that buyers are providing support around $75,000, making it a key support level. The token briefly dropped to $74,541 on Monday before rebounding. The next key support level is at $70,000.

There is one key point left: money will chase the rally. After that, more people will come in, such as ETF, futures, and various tracking products, and funds will pour in. This creates an inertia where the more it rises, the more people buy.
Therefore, the upward phase usually has a strong logic, demand, and funds chasing the rally, gradually pushing the price higher.
So why does it crash overnight? Many people have a very superficial understanding of this. The key point is not how bad the news about gold and silver is, but because the market is too crowded.

Therefore, the continuous plunge of Bitcoin is taking place against this dual background:
On one hand, Microsoft's earnings report triggered concerns about the growth logic and valuation of tech stocks, with selling sentiment spreading from the stock market to Bitcoin, which has similar financial attributes;
On the other hand, the sudden collapse of gold further worsened the global market's risk appetite, prompting investors to sell various risk assets including Bitcoin to seek liquidity safety.

Resistance: $84,200. A rebound to this level faces pressure, which is a selling point.
Support: $81,100. Falling below this level will accelerate the decline; stop-loss is necessary.
If you want to sell, go short: wait for the price to rebound to around $84,200 and stop rising before taking action.
If you want to exit, set a stop-loss: if the price breaks above $84,650, admit mistake and exit.
Where to look for a decline: first watch $82,000; if broken, then watch $81,100.
Don't guess the bottom; before the trend reverses, bottom-fishing = catching the knife.

Currently updating the possible retracement levels for Big Pie Auntie:
There are four possible levels for Big Pie's retracement:
Around 78557 (small probability)
Around 65580 (high probability)
Around 56774 (medium probability)
Between 56774 and 65580 (medium probability)
There are four possible levels for Auntie's retracement:
Around 2149 (medium probability)
Around 1742 (high probability)
Between 2149 and 1742 (medium probability)
Between 1742 and 1386 (small probability)

Currently, the situation is that BTC has completed the first wave of decline and entered a rebound cycle; altcoin market capitalization has been compressed to the extreme but is showing resilience. This is very much like a "digging a pit" move. All conditions are quietly being prepared, only waiting for an opportunity, or perhaps it simply can't fall any further, leading to a natural rebound.
Therefore, for the upcoming period, I think there's no need to be too pessimistic. A rebound is not a reversal; the major trend may still take time, but a Spring Festival market rally is worth looking for

Can Bitcoin really fall back to 50,000?
Yesterday, I had a long chat with an old BTC holder.
Not a talker, but someone who has already sold 90% of their position.
His core judgment is very harsh: #BTC is shifting from resisting fiat currency to becoming part of dollar assets. The more Wall Street buys, the weaker its independence.
Currently, hash power is flowing into AI.
Mining companies are converting to data centers and selling coins to survive.
If BTC loses the anti-system card,
How much is it really worth?

Gold just broke 4000 in early October, and now it has surged to 5000 in just over 100 days, a 25% increase. This speed is rare in decades of gold history. It’s worth noting that it took nearly a year to go from 3000 to 4000.
This time, it’s clearly stepping on the accelerator. Even more remarkable is silver, which rose 150% last year and another 24% at the start of this year. Today, it broke a historic 107. The gold-silver ratio has been shrinking, indicating what? Besides safe-haven demand, industrial demand is the real engine. Photovoltaics, electric vehicles, AI servers—each year they consu

Why do altcoins fall even more sharply? It has almost become a rule in the crypto world: when Bitcoin adjusts, altcoins "dive." The reasons are simple: poor liquidity, many retail investors, and high leverage. Many altcoin markets lack sufficient depth; when large funds withdraw, prices can easily flash crash. Additionally, many people trading altcoins like to use high leverage, and when the market moves in the opposite direction, chain reactions of liquidations can intensify the decline. Today’s over 800 million long positions are mostly bets on altcoin rebounds.

Mog Coin (MOG) has decreased by 17.8% over the past week, with a trading price close to $0.000000267 at the time of writing. Unlike other meme coins, MOG shows limited signs of stability. The price structure and momentum indicate further downside risk rather than a reversal of the current market conditions. According to momentum indicators, selling pressure remains intensifying. The capital flow index is at 37.1, well above the usual oversold threshold of 20.0 before a rebound. This suggests that MOG's price may continue to decline, breaking below the $0.000000242 support and sliding toward th

BTC price has fallen nearly 25%, but Wall Street not only did not sell off, they increased their holdings against the trend—this seemingly counterintuitive move hides complex market strategies by institutions. In Q4 2025, institutions significantly increased their holdings of Bitcoin ETF shares, interpreting different strategies in a volatile market through "strategic buying," and this behavior also laid the groundwork for subsequent Bitcoin rebounds.

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The focus of the second half of July is the result of the tariff negotiations: observe whether the market is "Favourable Information realization" or continues to rise.
US Stock Earnings Season: If tech stocks perform poorly, it may weigh on the crypto market. BTC ETF Fund Flow: Recently, the inflow of funds has slowed down, and if it continues to decrease, it may impact the upward momentum.
The market is currently in a high-level consolidation phase, and short-term news may intensify fluctuations, but the trend is not yet clear. Patiently waiting for opportunities is more prudent than blindly

A sudden transfer of 80,000 BTC from a Bitcoin address that has been silent for 14 years by a Whale has sparked market speculation. Such a level of Whale activity is often not just a simple buy or sell, but may involve institutional operations, such as OTC trading, collateralized lending, or even tax arrangements.
After a Whale transfers a large amount of coins, the market often does not rise immediately; instead, it may enter a period of consolidation or correction. For example, in November 2020, after an early Address transferred 5000 BTC, Bitcoin experienced nearly a month of sideways movem

The chairman of the Federal Reserve (FED), Jerome Powell, clearly stated in his speech yesterday that there will be no interest rate cuts in July, and September may be a more appropriate time. He mentioned that if it weren't for the recent tariff policies introduced by the Trump administration exacerbating inflationary pressures, the Federal Reserve (FED) might have started cutting interest rates back in June.
This statement has attracted widespread attention from the market, and Trump subsequently publicly criticized Powell, even threatening to replace the Chairman of The Federal Reserve (FED

Despite the approval of the Bitcoin ETF making it easier for institutional funds to enter the market, the SEC's regulatory attitude towards alts remains unclear, and many funds are hesitant to place bets easily. This round of the bull run focuses more on "value narratives" rather than pure concept speculation.
Projects with practical application scenarios, such as AI, DePIN, and RWA, are more favored by funding, while pure meme coins or altcoins lacking fundamentals are neglected.
Large funds are more willing to allocate Bitcoin and a few leading alts, while projects with small and medium mark

There are several reasons behind this: although the approval of the Bitcoin ETF makes it easier for institutional funds to enter the market, the SEC's regulatory stance on alts remains unclear, and many funds are hesitant to place bets.
This round of the bull market focuses more on "value narratives" rather than pure conceptual speculation. Projects with practical application scenarios, such as AI, DePIN, and RWA, are more favored by funds, while pure meme coins or altcoins lacking fundamentals are neglected.
Large funds are more willing to allocate to Bitcoin and a few leading alts, while sma

Bitcoin has performed relatively steadily, currently oscillating around $107,000. However, upon closer inspection, it has merely returned to the levels of June 17, while the Nasdaq index has already reached historical highs. From a long-term trend perspective, Bitcoin and the Nasdaq index are generally synchronized in direction. If the Nasdaq index continues to surge, Bitcoin may challenge the key resistance level of $110,000.
But the problem is that this round of Bitcoin's rise is a low-volume increase—there is not much capital inflow, and the market is quiet, indicating that investors are st