#Gate广场四月发帖挑战 The two-week ceasefire between the US and Iran has been implemented, risk aversion has sharply declined, and risk assets like BTC/ETH have experienced a dramatic rebound. The short-term rebound continues, the medium-term downtrend structure remains intact, and altcoins are still weak.
Fundamentals:
1. A critical turning point for the US and Iran: The US continues military pressure and insists on opening the strait; Iran initially refused to compromise firmly, raising the risk of accidental clashes. Ultimately, with Pakistan’s mediation, both sides reached a temporary ceasefire agreement, and Iran agreed to gradually open the Strait of Hormuz. The US temporarily halted its full-scale strike plans, significantly easing regional tensions. Oil prices fell accordingly, global inflation pressures eased, market risk aversion rapidly diminished, and risk assets gained a breathing space.
2. The Ethereum Foundation completed the staking of 70k ETH (about $143 million), shifting from “selling ETH” to “staking for yield,” significantly alleviating medium- and long-term selling pressure. Meanwhile, the aftermath of the $280 million hack of Solana ecosystem Drift Protocol continues to unfold, with leading blockchain SOL’s rebound weak (only +2%), far weaker than BTC/ETH. Liquidity for small and mid-cap altcoins continues to shrink.
Technical Analysis:
BTC: Benefiting from the ceasefire news, it surged to 72.7K before pulling back. The daily chart shows a small bearish candle, indicating strong selling pressure near the 72K resistance zone, which has hurt the bulls. The current candlestick runs along the lower edge of the medium-term downtrend channel (blue trendline), which has not yet been broken above, so the rebound is defined as an oversold bounce, not a trend reversal. Short-term moving averages (MA7/14) are diverging upward, providing short-term support; however, the price is under pressure from the MA90 (74K) and the lower boundary of the downtrend channel, indicating short-term bullish but medium-term bearish. Yesterday’s rebound was accompanied by increased volume, but today’s decline with decreased volume suggests insufficient buying power—mainly driven by news and short-term speculation, with no large funds entering for a bottom. The MACD has formed a golden cross below zero and is diverging upward, with the histogram positive and expanding, indicating a temporary bullish phase. However, the two lines are still close to zero, and the rebound momentum has not fully transitioned into a trend.
Looking ahead, the short-term trend is likely to continue rebounding, with targets around 74-75K (intermediate resistance). Support levels are at 69-68K. The medium-term downtrend remains unchanged and will not be altered by the short-term ceasefire news. Intraday, support is at 70-69K, resistance at 72-73K.
ETH: Moving in tandem with BTC, it continues to recover within the medium-term downtrend channel. After the ceasefire news pushed it briefly to 2273, it slightly retreated, entering a phase of low-volume consolidation. The upper resistance at 2300-2350 coincides with the lower boundary of the downtrend channel and the MA90, and without a breakout, it remains a weak rebound.
The short-term moving averages (MA7/14) are turning upward, indicating ongoing short-term bullishness. However, the price is under pressure from the MA90 (2310) and the downward trendline (blue), compressing the space for a bullish counterattack. Volume increased mildly during yesterday’s rebound, showing market buying sentiment. The retracement on smaller timeframes was small, and volume has contracted, indicating clear short-term upward momentum. The MACD has formed a golden cross below zero and is diverging upward, crossing above zero, signaling a short-term bullish rebound. Looking ahead, the short-term trend is likely to continue rebounding, with key resistance at 2300-2350 (downtrend lower boundary). Support is at 2180-2150; as long as this zone holds, the rebound structure remains intact. Intraday, support is at 2200-2170, resistance at 2300-2330.
Altcoins: Driven by the US-Iran ceasefire, the altcoin sector rebounded yesterday, but momentum quickly faded today, with gains narrowing. Leading public chains (SOL/BNB) showed weakness: SOL was affected by the Drift Protocol hack aftermath, with a 24-hour increase of less than 2%, significantly underperforming BTC/ETH; BNB followed the market with oscillations and no independent upward momentum. Small-cap and purely narrative tokens experienced continuous decline, with most dropping 1%-4% daily. Low-liquidity tokens remain at risk of flash crashes, with order gaps and slippage exceeding 8%. Previous bottom-fishing funds are trapped, with no effective exit opportunities.
Although risk funds have loosened after the ceasefire, they still mainly concentrate on core assets like BTC/ETH. Altcoin liquidity has not been effectively restored, and no new funds are entering. The rebound in altcoins is merely passive follow-up without independent fundamental support, making sustained rebound unlikely.
Looking ahead, after the short-term ceasefire relief is digested, altcoins are expected to revert to a downward trend, with no sustained rebounds. If the market corrects, altcoins will lead the decline, falling more than mainstream coins. The mid-term remains a deep bear market of de-f bubbling and de-liquidity, with no structural opportunities. The pattern of funds clustering around core assets will continue.
Crypto market volatility is high; caution is advised when entering the market. These are personal views, not recommendations, for sharing only.
