Bitcoin had a "surge and pullback, deep correction" trend this week. The beginning of the week continued last week's strength, with support at 70000 and an attack to the high, reaching 75998, just one step away from 76000. Following the probe higher, prices retreated and gradually declined as market sentiment reversed sharply. Bitcoin plummeted from the highs, consecutively breaking through three key levels at 74000, 72000, and 70000. However, with the Federal Reserve rate decision implemented, support formed at the 70000 level for consolidation, with the lowest point reaching 68030 by the weekend. The weekly candle closed with a long upper shadow and a massive bearish candle, nearly wiping out the gains from the previous two weeks, completely stopping the bullish offensive. Ethereum collapsed in sync, surging above 2360 at the start of the week before declining significantly, dropping to near 2070, currently barely holding at 2080. Last weekend we provided a top call alert, and shared real-time market analysis this week. This week we only lost one Bitcoin position at 500 points, with total Bitcoin gains of 17700 points this week and total Ethereum gains of 790 points.
From the weekly level, Bitcoin closed with a massive bearish candle, breaking below the 5-week moving average support and currently testing near the 10-week moving average. The MACD fast and slow lines show clear signs of bearish crossover at the top, with red column momentum continuously weakening. If next week continues to close bearish, the weekly level's top divergence structure will be confirmed, potentially entering a medium-term correction. The 68000-69000 zone below is near the 20-week moving average and a previous dense trading area. If this level breaks, it could further seek support in the 63000-65000 region. From the daily level, Bitcoin has closed bearish for consecutive days. Although Friday saw a slight rebound, prices weakened again today, now breaking below the 70000 level and testing support near 68000. The daily K-line broke below the 60-day moving average, with short-term moving averages in bearish alignment, and the 5-day and 10-day lines curving downward forming pressure. The MACD fast and slow lines crossed below the zero axis and are accelerating downward divergence, with green column momentum continuously expanding. The daily level correction is still underway with no clear stop-loss signal yet. The 68000-69000 zone below is a previous breakout platform and near the starting point of this rally. If effectively broken, downside space will further open. If stable in this zone and closes with a bottom pattern, it could potentially establish a phase bottom. Combined with the 4-hour chart, the pullback further confirms the consolidation range, with the key support at 68000. In the short term, there's no sustained breakout, and the market still has momentum for a second rebound to test key resistance above. After forming key support, focus on 71000-72000 resistance above, positioning for a medium-term breakdown below the 60000 level.
Bitcoin midterm: Go long near 68000, target 71500, then decisive short positioning below. Ethereum: Long 2050-2070, continue shorting above 2150#加密行情震荡 $BTC $ETH
