Optimism（OP）价格近期持续承压，已正式跌破关键移动平均线，引发市场对进一步下跌的担忧。数据显示，截至目前 OP 报 0.2678 美元，24 小时下跌约 4%，近一个月累计跌幅达 18%。价格在 0.252 美元至 0.282 美元区间震荡，但整体走势仍明显偏弱，较 2024 年高点 4.84 美元回撤接近 94%。
从交易数据来看，尽管 OP 现货成交量单日增长 32% 至 6210 万美元，但价格并未同步回升，显示市场以短线交易为主，信心不足。CoinGlass 衍生品数据显示，合约成交量大增 53%，但未平仓合约反而下降，表明交易员正在主动降低杠杆、加快平仓节奏，在方向不明的环境中趋于防守。
更大的不确定性来自即将到来的代币解锁。Tokenomist 数据显示，约 3134 万枚 OP（价值约 860 万美元）将于 12 月 31 日解锁，占流通供应量的约 1.65%。目前 Optimism 流通比例仅为 44%，在市场情绪偏空的背景下，新增供应可能进一步加大抛压，尤其是在买盘谨慎的阶段。
技术面上，OP 仍处于明确的下降趋势，价格运行在 20 日均线和布林带中轨下方。RSI 虽从超卖区域回升，但仍低于 50，空头结构尚未被破坏；MACD 走平，更多反映下跌动能减弱而非趋势反转。短期阻力集中在 0.28 至 0.31 美元区间，而下方关键支撑位于 0.24 至 0.25 美元。一旦解锁后需求无法承接，OP 价格仍需警惕进一步走弱的风险。
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