There are 24 hours left until the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut decision. Probability of a rate cut? Still high. BTC price? $91,000, "frozen". Everyone is waiting for tomorrow's "starting gun". But I want to ask a question: When everyone knows there will be a rate cut, will the market go up or down at the moment the rate cut is announced? The pattern is harsh: when the market's expectation for a certain "bullish" event is >90%, after the bullish news is confirmed, the probability of a price drop is 67%.

Everyone is waiting for the rate cut in December. There’s a 92% probability, the highest consensus in history. People didn’t dare to make a move when BTC was at $91,000. If you buy now, you’re afraid the price will drop before the rate cut. If you sell now, you’re afraid the price will rise after the rate cut. In November, ETFs saw $3.5 billion in outflows, the second-largest single-month redemption in history. Early December saw a flash crash, dropping $4,000 in 2 hours, with over 400 million positions liquidated. The Fear Index shows extreme fear. This isn’t waiting for good news—it’s waitin

🔴 92% Consensus Trap: When Everyone is Bullish, Who Will Buy?
The market's bet on a Fed rate cut has just soared to 92%—the highest in history.
Twitter is flooded with cheers for the "return of the bull market," and everyone is waiting for that bullish catalyst to materialize.
But I want to ask a question drowned out by all this cheering: When 92% of people are betting in the same direction, what are the remaining 8% thinking?
1. The "strange" divergence in the data

One Year Since Institutions Entered the Market: Why Are Retail Investors All Losing Money?
It's been almost a year since the BTC ETF launched, and institutions are making a fortune. What about retail investors' accounts? They're all losing money. This isn't just a joke—it's backed by data.
What have institutions done over the past year?
- BlackRock, Fidelity, and others have bought over 1 million BTC through ETFs.
- Their average cost is in the $60,000 to $70,000 range.
- With the current price at $94,000, their average return is 30% to 40%.

The world's second-largest asset management company ($11 trillion) has opened access to crypto ETFs, finally unlocking this pool of funds. Many are cheering, saying "the institutional bull market has arrived." But I see a different story.
Institutional entry does not mean retail investors will profit.
Over the past year, institutions have purchased over one million BTC through ETFs. And what was the result?
Retail investors got liquidated—390,000 accounts were wiped out, with $640 million swept away. Retail sold at a loss, and short-term holders lost 2.8 million BTC.

Panic index 24, but BTC has only fallen to $84k? Let's compare the real "extreme panic": 2022 FTX crash: • BTC: $15,588 • Panic index: 20 • Everyone was discussing: Crypto Assets are eyewash December 2025: • BTC: $84,000 • Panic index: 24 • Everyone is discussing: Is this a buy the dip opportunity? Both are "extreme panic", but one is $15k, and the other is $84k.

Everyone is shouting "The Fed's QT is over, the bull run in December is coming." What happened? BTC fell below 87,000, evaporating 140 billion dollars in 24 hours. The market is telling you in the most straightforward way: narrative ≠ reality. Over the past decade, December has been the best month for BTC, with an average return of 40%. But on the first day of December this year, the market gave you a lesson. History will repeat, but it won't simply copy.

$BTC rose back to 91,000, and the whole network is shouting that the bull is back. But let me pour some cold water on this. The rebound occurred on Thanksgiving, when the US market was closed, resulting in poor liquidity. In the past 24 hours, nearly 200 million dollars in short orders got liquidated, but you know what? This is not driven by real buying pressure, but rather a short squeeze caused by shorts being forced to close positions. Real institutional funds are still on the sidelines.

I stayed in Thailand for a few years before and made similar observations about development; it’s not as simple as what is written in textbooks. Look at Singapore, South Korea, Taiwan, and mainland China after the reform and opening up; they all first focused on developing the economy, which led to the rise of the middle class, and then the infrastructure for education and healthcare followed, allowing subsequent developments to progress.

One Image Explained Series · Daily Update Plan Launch Starting today, I will create one "One Image Explained" infographic every day, using data to clarify market logic. Today's image is: How to Determine the Market Bottom 👇 Time, momentum, sentiment, technical analysis, and risk appetite, these five dimensions resonate to form the true get on board signal. Brothers, what themes do you want to see? Leave a message in the comments section, and I will prioritize the most liked ones. It can be:

One chart to understand: What is smart money doing when the market is most fearful? CoinDesk's latest data shows that during this pullback, traders on Bitfinex are frantically leveraging to buy BTC: The Bitcoin purchased through borrowing surged from 50,000 in August to 70,700. Margin long positions skyrocketed by 42% over three months. The background is that the market is heading towards its weakest monthly performance since June 2022. This data seems a bit counterintuitive, but upon further thought, it makes sense.

I see a lot of people bottom-fishing all sorts of random coins. From GameFi and AI Agents to chain abstraction and so on, but here's a tough question: will these things still be around in a year or two? My judgment is simple—just like Da Yu @BTCdayu says, the ones that survive in the end are always those few boring but essential ones. $BTC needs no explanation; the consensus on digital gold is already established, and the rest is just a matter of time.

"We're all brothers here, so let's stop using English from now on—no need to make everyone translate it."

Here are some practical survival tips for the brothers who are still hanging in there—whether you listen or not is up to you.
First, don’t risk your own living expenses to take on someone else’s KPIs. Project teams and VCs are under fundraising pressure and have token unlock schedules—their KPI is to sell tokens to you. What about you? Your KPI should be to preserve your principal. Don’t FOMO into every new concept you see.
Second, admit that you are in a weaker position.

Actually, I myself am quite interested in prediction markets, it's just that I've been quite busy lately. There are friends around me who made a lot of profits during the League of Legends competitions. Many people might see this and think it's just wishful thinking, but what Polymarket really changes is the "underlying logic of making money". Traditional work: your time exchanges for your boss's money. Polymarket: your judgment exchanges for the market's money.